Fifa International · resolved market
Will Kylian Mbappe score 11+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d4cbc543a5399695a4edeefd9e00c11d793520b3d85bf8d53b23548e4024022
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 7c | 10,453$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.91 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 5c | 4,940$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…5b6dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,021$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 79c | 1,978$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.24 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,658$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3673backed Yes | 4c | 1,476$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 22c | 925.05$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.22 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…891fbacked Yes | 4c | 768.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 22c | 718.58$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 600$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…2f60backed Yes | 4c | 526$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 515.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 4c | 472.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc99d…93b0backed Yes | 11c | 369.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 349.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 75c | 309.5$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.73 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +18.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xedf8…e650backed Yes | 20c | 298$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 7c | 294.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 175 | 35.4%62 W · 113 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 20c | 225$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 119 | 28.6%34 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c1…aa4dbacked Yes | 15c | 206.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…1269backed Yes | 7c | 200.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 383 | 33.9%130 W · 253 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 63c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…5d4fbacked Yes | 20c | 193.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 17c | 175$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 173 | 57.8%100 W · 73 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 8c | 170.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 118$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…b1e6backed Yes | 26c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 80c | 103$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0255…7a19backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…e99bbacked No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 138 | 55.1%76 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 19c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a0…2746backed Yes | 35c | 67.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 197 | 39.6%78 W · 119 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0eb…e291backed Yes | 21c | 66.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 28c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 25c | 65.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…dc16backed Yes | 33c | 57.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…d1e1backed No | 77c | 29.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 470 | 49.4%232 W · 238 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 198 | 74.7%148 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 11+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 12+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 13+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 7+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 8+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.