Fifa International · resolved market
Will Kylian Mbappe score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51de8ec59a7addd4ef08e23ce52d14d38a970f1a07b7a980cafaa4e1ea7fc5c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 14c | 3,404$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.43 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 20c | 1,159$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…6070backed No | 15c | 1,003$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.01 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 18c | 700$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.42 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 12c | 694.29$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.49 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +18.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 79c | 606.12$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.24 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.8 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…3429backed Yes | 78c | 524.22$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.86 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 15c | 473.66$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 44c | 435.85$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.08 | 125 | 34.4%43 W · 82 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 251.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…930fbacked Yes | 50c | 200.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 180 | 37.2%67 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed No | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 236 | 40.3%95 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 13c | 161.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…0776backed Yes | 48c | 155.07$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 159 | 42.1%67 W · 92 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefab…258ebacked Yes | 37c | 143.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.38 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 23c | 133.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 15c | 117.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed No | 52c | 106.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 481 | 40.1%193 W · 288 L | -17.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d8…be50backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…33f4backed Yes | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 89.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…049fbacked No | 25c | 81.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 48c | 78.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed No | 18c | 69.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b4…48dabacked Yes | 45c | 64.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 54c | 51.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 550 | 44.7%246 W · 304 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a88…ded1backed Yes | 66c | 30.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 71c | 17.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 198 | 74.7%148 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 73c | 14.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 11+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 12+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 13+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 7+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 8+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Kylian Mbappe score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.