AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk testify against Altman?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50b95ba9f34e154f2d70f0756fdeb3cfccf0bbd6efe9ba4bba43e684c110c085
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 7c | 960$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 28c | 799$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe57a…e196backed Yes | 78c | 639$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 73c | 591.66$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 25c | 420$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc88…b7eebacked No | 22c | 400$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 39c | 329.71$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.31 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29e7…fbbfbacked Yes | 61c | 317.64$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be7…8e91backed No | 23c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 23c | 199.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…bfdfbacked Yes | 78c | 189.97$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a4…d89fbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…6271backed Yes | 42c | 82.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f2…cb55backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab5…aef1backed Yes | 49c | 78.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e5…0059backed Yes | 78c | 65.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2142…e744backed No | 28c | 56.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5c…70e8backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39bc…f994backed No | 58c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 35c | 40.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc02c…7c6abacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…9b6cbacked No | 31c | 36.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbccc…4f41backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x977c…45f0backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8767…4368backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.