Middle East · resolved market
KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac87d3a804594eb6b89f5069ccf2f12b6df81aa64e3489925e000cd213674e22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 4c | 4,177$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.65 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…2b64backed Yes | 2c | 3,675$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 3c | 3,353$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.29 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,696$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 3c | 2,500$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 1,993$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2744…57dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,614$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,030$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 984.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 2c | 933.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c5cebacked Yes | 4c | 900$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 3c | 666.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…84b2backed Yes | 4c | 519.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 3c | 450$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 10c | 444$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…be02backed Yes | 9c | 260$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef8…bd2bbacked Yes | 5c | 251.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…7922backed Yes | 4c | 250.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…6271backed Yes | 4c | 243.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…62a0backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed Yes | 11c | 181$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 12c | 93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7265…703abacked Yes | 22c | 71.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 79c | 61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…5997backed No | 79c | 20.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.