AI · resolved market
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19b45e016995823419255364ed7c49423d411e7dbc712c6abf4e0e0222740109
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $167,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88bb…c12bbacked Yes | 10c | 21,076$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 13c | 8,292$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.42 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…7ce7backed Yes | 14c | 3,958$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 3,759$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.35 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,309$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,395$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,218$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.09 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 9c | 2,193$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.5 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 12c | 1,973$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.71 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed Yes | 15c | 1,822$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 1,653$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,479$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,447$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,303$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…209bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,285$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 1,146$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134b…a5fdbacked Yes | 3c | 942.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 10c | 836.22$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.77 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…2f1ebacked Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…f928backed Yes | 14c | 714$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d30…c338backed Yes | 3c | 710.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 659$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…0ecdbacked Yes | 13c | 600$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…323ebacked Yes | 2c | 468.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 15c | 466$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 17c | 462.93$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.82 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x503f…46dcbacked Yes | 12c | 450$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cca…c457backed Yes | 7c | 429.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f5…14d5backed Yes | 14c | 364.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 9c | 332.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 3c | 325$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e0…a8eabacked Yes | 6c | 299.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…a812backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 21cpaid | +1,009.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…8354backed No | 76c | 230$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 20c | 221.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 13c | 220$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 207.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…bb8dbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110e…03c5backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…a5f2backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 8c | 199.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 10c | 196.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea87…e362backed Yes | 8c | 181.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…0811backed Yes | 10c | 170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec7…c8eabacked Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed Yes | 12c | 142.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaed3…8c53backed Yes | 20c | 123$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f8…7483backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…6271backed Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb9…1622backed Yes | 9c | 109.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b3…33febacked Yes | 12c | 108.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.6wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…ed1cbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c39…1e25backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…48ffbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 95.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x84d0…ea2cbacked No | 62c | 75.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…5a44backed No | 68c | 42.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca37…a2aebacked No | 79c | 38.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b8ddbacked No | 70c | 22.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.