Fifa International · resolved market
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2a5ad3f1474c2551ef34f225a5e25d769284e98a34679fe9b7f1bf15544827a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd58…18f9backed No | 40c | 7,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,799.99 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32e4…beedbacked Yes | 61c | 6,944$4,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,736.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 71c | 4,035$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.35 | 252 | 44.8%113 W · 139 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 1c | 2,042$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5084…7cf2backed Yes | 76c | 1,053$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.32 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed No | 44c | 798.03$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.13 | 534 | 48.5%259 W · 275 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 14c | 686.61$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.26 | 341 | 51%174 W · 167 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 15c | 550.95$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.07 | 227 | 31.7%72 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 5c | 499.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b60…85e0backed Yes | 56c | 491.07$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.07 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 303.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…5a76backed Yes | 68c | 263.34$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.34 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 35c | 259.35$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.16 | 657 | 37.4%246 W · 411 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed Yes | 61c | 220.33$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.93 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Yes | 56c | 181.96$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.88 | 208 | 41.3%86 W · 122 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 27c | 170.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…bf23backed No | 48c | 104.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…6271backed Yes | 56c | 98.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42d9…bc6dbacked Yes | 58c | 98.07$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 41c | 72.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 181 | 39.8%72 W · 109 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…d0d3backed Yes | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 59c | 56.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed No | 26c | 54.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 40c | 41.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…6a8abacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…0da7backed Yes | 56c | 35.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0146…e924backed Yes | 60c | 33.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 65c | 30.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f1…dd82backed Yes | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed Yes | 59c | 22.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Yes | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 225 | 60.4%136 W · 89 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?this page
- Will Japan finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
- Will Netherlands finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
- Will Sweden finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.