Golf · resolved market

Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 The Open Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8dbfc0bb9817279d81ce2c0c071378c850bf61b2621aa748412532c2062d32d

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $9,055
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $9,033

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,055 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe558…dcd2backed Yes	54c	2,928$1,581 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,581.13	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No	46c	2,500$1,150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,350	233	19.3%45 W · 188 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed No	54c	1,642$892 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$749.68	120	57.5%69 W · 51 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75cf…dc7fbacked Yes	47c	1,164$545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$544.94	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf278…d787backed Yes	51c	525.9$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.57	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+2.7wins	+0.19per pick	38cpaid	+54.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	46c	500$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270	83	43.4%36 W · 47 L	-8.6wins	-0.10per pick	54cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes	54c	499.99$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.59	63	34.9%22 W · 41 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc15…cca6backed No	46c	421$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.34	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-3.6wins	-0.17per pick	46cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed No	51c	386.98$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$190.88	52	26.9%14 W · 38 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x819f…f3e7backed No	55c	328$181 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147.3	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-31%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fe5…365cbacked Yes	35c	283.94$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	+233.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes	46c	280.25$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.18	137	39.4%54 W · 83 L	+5.1wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb143…cadebacked Yes	28c	253$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.24	62	14.5%9 W · 53 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40d5…acd1backed Yes	57c	250$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.38	75	29.3%22 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No	47c	195.7$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.76	105	46.7%49 W · 56 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed No	59c	162$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.76	97	42.3%41 W · 56 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	56c	161$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.14	67	46.3%31 W · 36 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked No	49c	150$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.5	43	23.3%10 W · 33 L	-2.3wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed No	46c	123.36$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.61	70	31.4%22 W · 48 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	68c	105$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.12	254	49.2%125 W · 129 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38d5…063cbacked No	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No	48c	98$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.96	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	35c	68$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.8	295	3.7%11 W · 284 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x946e…9749backed Yes	48c	62.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	24cpaid	+95%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No	47c	61.89$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.62	56	50%28 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No	43c	50$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.5	16	81.3%13 W · 3 L	+3.0wins	+0.19per pick	63cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c9b6backed No	43c	50$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.5	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+3.0wins	+0.28per pick	54cpaid	+66.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb777…a722backed No	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed No	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+87.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No	50c	46.94$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.3	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-3.4wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x04a1…d6e6backed Yes	54c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No	43c	38$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.66	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b3d…99cebacked Yes	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe35…6789backed Yes	35c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5777…f1a7backed No	46c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.54per pick	46cpaid	+117.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba63…6271backed Yes	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	58	24.1%14 W · 44 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 57 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 The Open Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event