Golf · resolved market

Will Collin Morikawa finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 The Open Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x972b903be5b5610fc9d576102c7fade069a5d65fe66c089b8912225f8a876771

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,368
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,859

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,368 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfc23…8283backed Yes	37c	679.41$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$429.41	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes	74c	585.4$432 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.28	137	39.4%54 W · 83 L	+5.1wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x96d9…18a0backed Yes	38c	533$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$332.64	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x819f…f3e7backed No	62c	424$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.88	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-31%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x40d5…acd1backed Yes	56c	407$229 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.67	75	29.3%22 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed No	61c	345$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.25	70	31.4%22 W · 48 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yes	55c	302.98$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.39	184	46.2%85 W · 99 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No	63c	259.41$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.43	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed No	56c	234.52$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.02	52	26.9%14 W · 38 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf278…d787backed Yes	45c	201$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.55	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+2.7wins	+0.19per pick	38cpaid	+54.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked No	66c	150$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	63	34.9%22 W · 41 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No	65c	150$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.88	105	46.7%49 W · 56 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf006…bb6cbacked No	45c	120$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.6	95	54.7%52 W · 43 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	55c	101$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.55	67	46.3%31 W · 36 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed No	65c	100$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	120	57.5%69 W · 51 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38d5…063cbacked No	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed No	46c	97.76$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.97	97	42.3%41 W · 56 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked No	66c	73.53$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.53	43	23.3%10 W · 33 L	-2.3wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x247f…006dbacked Yes	34c	73.53$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.53	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No	66c	50$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-3.1wins	-0.19per pick	50cpaid	-34%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6b67…3998backed No	65c	50$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.65per pick	65cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No	42c	45$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	55	40%22 W · 33 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No	65c	23.52$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.29	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1491…fd70backed No	65c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 57 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Collin Morikawa finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 The Open Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event