Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa736c54b64a36edc657763bab62b32ffce52fc59b8e57448943d579926ce619e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb088…ee40backed No | 0c | 22,057$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42fd…96c0backed No | 0c | 12,154$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…6351backed No | 0c | 7,124$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 9c | 3,174$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.07 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 4c | 1,230$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 4c | 958.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…5475backed No | 65c | 576.02$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.76 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 3c | 418.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 4c | 320.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…13f3backed No | 7c | 264.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc902…ec67backed No | 6c | 241.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…dfafbacked No | 7c | 166.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e05…9fa8backed No | 9c | 131.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…2eaabacked No | 10c | 108.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 80c | 99.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 76c | 88.95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 34c | 73.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 77c | 61.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 50c | 56.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 65c | 55.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…6271backed Yes | 75c | 41.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed Yes | 70c | 37.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70d3…2909backed Yes | 57c | 31.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 38c | 27.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…d0cfbacked Yes | 73c | 18.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcb…c018backed Yes | 71c | 16.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.