Tennis · resolved market
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Monte Carlo Masters?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35e188bda7f0cec1e6fc91e72a695306803c19ad6e9f00cc820b045c51914c28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 72c | 1,667$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.19 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Yes | 53c | 1,253$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.2 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked No | 64c | 1,064$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.91 | 631 | 44.1%278 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e70…caccbacked Yes | 47c | 999.89$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.92 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed No | 47c | 942.95$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.72 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 25c | 798.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.75 | 194 | 11.9%23 W · 171 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…468dbacked Yes | 27c | 712.3$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Yes | 43c | 479.49$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.19 | 220 | 39.1%86 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 76c | 437.47$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.12 | 756 | 48.7%368 W · 388 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…5fdcbacked Yes | 56c | 400.62$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.94 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 46c | 398.12$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.45 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa68…8d45backed Yes | 53c | 366.63$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…d3dfbacked Yes | 59c | 353.59$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 50c | 261.65$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.46 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…6271backed Yes | 55c | 259.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 42c | 252.68$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.94 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa9…cfc3backed Yes | 35c | 249.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +201.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…afcbbacked No | 46c | 190.71$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 51c | 171.38$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafb5…cc10backed Yes | 12c | 159.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 35c | 153.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9119…6561backed Yes | 66c | 134.92$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 46c | 118.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7981…94cbbacked Yes | 49c | 113.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 42c | 106.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 99.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 52c | 99.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0465backed Yes | 52c | 98.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…8f91backed No | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x799f…83e2backed Yes | 57c | 94.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…4968backed Yes | 56c | 86.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 56c | 76.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 277 | 44.4%123 W · 154 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 75c | 73.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 1,678 | 50.8%852 W · 826 L | +30.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 33c | 72.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 65 | 73.8%48 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed Yes | 57c | 67.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 2,821 | 39.5%1,113 W · 1,708 L | -82.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…13febacked Yes | 50c | 51.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d67…e602backed No | 63c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 51c | 49.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…1fbebacked No | 78c | 43.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked Yes | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 31c | 38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -8.0wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…00d0backed Yes | 65c | 37.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fb…624fbacked Yes | 57c | 34.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bf…a661backed No | 45c | 32.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 47c | 31.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa80d…9e34backed Yes | 49c | 29.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb77a…d769backed Yes | 52c | 28.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 48c | 27.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 50c | 26.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1138…0a30backed Yes | 50c | 25.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Yes | 51c | 24.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…e6a5backed Yes | 60c | 23.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe866…b57abacked Yes | 59c | 23.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…8619backed Yes | 49c | 22.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e49…8984backed Yes | 53c | 20.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…8b33backed No | 78c | 19.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Monte Carlo Masters?this page
- Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Monte Carlo Masters?No won
- Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Monte Carlo Masters?Yes won
- Will Valentin Vacherot win the 2026 Monte Carlo Masters?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.