TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Golf · resolved market

Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$257,273
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$187,310

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $257,273 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Golf
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xae2b…90eabacked Yes9c35,679$3,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,160230%0 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5fe…d475backed Yes2c26,159$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.27329.4%3 W · 29 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick4cpaid-14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37ae…1002backed Yes13c18,002$2,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,377.14210%0 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32d8…2794backed Yes6c13,532$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.4370%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aa7…e3d9backed Yes0c12,245$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.494613%6 W · 40 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Yes7c11,314$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7922516%4 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4718…e2e8backed Yes17c10,139$1,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,73710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e10…0cd4backed Yes6c7,202$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.11219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-83.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc26c…d532backed Yes8c6,227$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb911…7c31backed Yes11c6,084$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.67368.3%3 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes8c5,999$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.94810.4%5 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-76.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f3…2568backed Yes8c3,845$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.793414.7%5 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes2c3,400$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.25250%0 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb8b…6d8abacked Yes8c3,125$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9f7…00f9backed Yes6c3,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18070%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x71a3…c9ffbacked Yes8c2,721$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe42c…6bf9backed Yes7c2,318$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.73508%4 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5174…4fa3backed Yes6c2,222$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.132123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-61.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8563…1eeabacked Yes8c1,563$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b39…a4e6backed Yes10c1,548$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8db6…da81backed Yes12c1,470$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.76316.5%2 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-58.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca4…aa92backed Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe713…af20backed Yes7c1,253$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xea1a…13b5backed Yes5c1,088$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a50…a045backed Yes13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+52%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e10…44b7backed Yes10c964.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b90…8cdcbacked Yes7c900$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63140%0 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6067…08eabacked Yes5c881.5$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.46911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-61.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb4…481dbacked Yes12c840.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-85.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf356…f7d4backed Yes13c785.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100110%0 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e5a…96bcbacked Yes11c714.38$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.68666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+33.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x92ad…a084backed Yes7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+259.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa097…fba7backed Yes7c700$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+76.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62d8…dd17backed Yes7c664.71$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.53333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2308…6c79backed Yes8c647.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5387…c91ebacked Yes6c636.17$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.861227.4%9 W · 113 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35f3…6580backed Yes11c591.36$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9118…b410backed Yes7c571.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe04…a198backed Yes8c555.55$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09b5…7e72backed Yes6c546$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.761241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5bc…44eabacked Yes8c500$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-74.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81b5…a252backed Yes12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5255…6e58backed Yes7c499.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-44.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x140b…d0d9backed Yes11c452.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4642…9458backed Yes7c428.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x264f…3a66backed Yes12c420$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid+58.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16dd…adf5backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-90.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c95…7ca6backed Yes10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-78.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6590…cf07backed Yes8c366.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-75.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x504e…8da8backed Yes8c360.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-66%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff1…afedbacked Yes6c350.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7db…6688backed Yes6c326.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.89425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69fd…a224backed Yes12c279.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5284…6f2bbacked Yes8c265.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ee…4e60backed Yes7c262.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-61.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7460…944ebacked Yes12c251.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x227c…b8c3backed Yes8c237.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.01922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes10c231.88$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.291414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca77…89bcbacked Yes11c227.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25825%2 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+84.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38ed…4ed7backed Yes7c220$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba63…6271backed Yes7c220$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.655824.1%14 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b5f…c9c7backed Yes13c212.23$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+47.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8b…9cd7backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43eb…e6c0backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e34…2f01backed Yes7c198.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b08…dd9bbacked Yes8c192.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-75.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb42…4bc1backed Yes7c160$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d1…dabdbacked Yes7c150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-59.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes12c150$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9706…3eaabacked Yes10c148.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f587backed Yes16c144.86$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+87.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c2…c069backed Yes16c125.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-67.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe14…d255backed Yes9c118.87$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.16616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4166…3e91backed Yes17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe830…39ecbacked Yes9c117.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x95ec…b6debacked Yes11c110$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick18cpaid+204.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e00…9e93backed Yes20c108.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.67270%0 W · 27 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbacc…29e3backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3261…249abacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd49…d059backed Yes20c99.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c95…b1afbacked No80c19.24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.