World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2696b9c461f9dd10098cb720edfccc16efdf157c8c4fd18e5c3c2b8d6c087632
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0bcf…9f3fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,490$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked Yes | 2c | 909.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 36c | 428.9$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.07 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 4c | 343.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 39c | 298.52$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.59 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 40c | 243.87$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…a4febacked Yes | 44c | 206.56$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 192.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 40c | 192.27$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 23c | 189.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 178.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed No | 71c | 169.43$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 19c | 165$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 68c | 155.14$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 22c | 153$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 40c | 146.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 15c | 146.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 43c | 117.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 30c | 113.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 30c | 105$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 60c | 95.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 95.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 12c | 92.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 52c | 92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 86.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 86.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 69c | 82.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 65c | 80.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 37c | 79.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2401…0753backed No | 60c | 75.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 24c | 71.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 64.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 61.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 59.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…6271backed Yes | 33c | 58.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c5…c2c8backed Yes | 39c | 51.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 53c | 49.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 41c | 48.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 58c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 41c | 45.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked No | 76c | 45.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 54c | 43.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b92…ddcdbacked Yes | 49c | 41.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 33c | 40.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…e221backed No | 75c | 39.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 59c | 38.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 35.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf62b…07c5backed No | 53c | 33.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 62c | 32.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 45c | 31.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…ad52backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 60c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 29.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 35c | 28.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 41c | 27.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 65c | 26.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 63c | 25.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf5…606bbacked No | 61c | 24.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 63c | 21.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 56c | 18.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.