Us Politics · resolved market
Will less than 8000 US flights be delayed on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e208f460070feca036bf9ee0c827af65e983d2824c989214ea437a7ece02c38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,637 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c4b…36a6backed Yes | 50c | 1,998$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4c…fb98backed Yes | 50c | 1,998$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…8a3cbacked No | 50c | 1,998$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 10c | 249.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 69c | 155.72$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…6271backed Yes | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 25c | 46.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…ee55backed No | 50c | 35.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6807…4465backed Yes | 50c | 35.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…5d69backed Yes | 50c | 32.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2a…3ae5backed No | 50c | 32.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 54c | 18.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will less than 8000 US flights be delayed on March 25?this page
- Will between 8000-8500 US flights be delayed on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.