Weather · resolved market
Will Typhoon Dolphin be a "Typhoon" at Japan landfall?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8184af62c013213f41b581aa3228594d6dce3c22cd5c696d4c1097e5aefd6ff4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked Yes | 14c | 2,010$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 58c | 1,069$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.61 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 1,017$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed No | 35c | 975.16$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.91 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 76c | 902.85$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.59 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 37c | 685.23$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +181.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed No | 71c | 527.18$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.18 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…3a1bbacked Yes | 33c | 517.32$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 74c | 459.98$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.38 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 74c | 403.9$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 73c | 403.86$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.81 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 370.83$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.06 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 74c | 352.43$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.5 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 22c | 292.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.24 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 75c | 243.83$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.04 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d0…cc0abacked No | 24c | 216.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.27 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2564…f258backed Yes | 9c | 180.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +668.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 76c | 169.19$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.85 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 77c | 168.28$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.74 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 157.23$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 40c | 138.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 68c | 136.18$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 31c | 124.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.21 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 31c | 113.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.78 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 111$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 108.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 46c | 101.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 100.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 42c | 69.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 76c | 68.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 22c | 68.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 67.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fed…395abacked Yes | 78c | 64.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a82…abeabacked No | 45c | 62.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce9…a994backed Yes | 69c | 57.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 30c | 52.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 23c | 52.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 57c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 39c | 49.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 31c | 41.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4834…5f7abacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 31c | 37.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…d361backed Yes | 77c | 31.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 72c | 31.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 44c | 31.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 41c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…1d51backed Yes | 76c | 25.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfe…11fdbacked Yes | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe802…d7dabacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e7…73c4backed Yes | 71c | 18.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Typhoon Dolphin be a "Typhoon" at Japan landfall?this page
- Will Typhoon Dolphin be a "Severe Tropical Storm" at Japan landfall?No won
- Will Typhoon Dolphin be a "Very Strong Typhoon" at Japan landfall?Yes won
- Will Typhoon Dolphin be a "Violent Typhoon" at Japan landfall?No won
- Will Typhoon Dolphin not make Japan landfall?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.