China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Vanke default on debt by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x799cddc58f88eb67b49721bfae7871082d03f61465f620e4d2f89dd431e677a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 32c | 504.34$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 210.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb89…d308backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 12c | 193.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 76c | 188.98$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac9…766fbacked No | 73c | 161.62$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 38c | 150.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dc14backed Yes | 31c | 142.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806f…7a14backed No | 71c | 140.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 126.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 93.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -11.8wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…9925backed No | 66c | 82.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…5c24backed Yes | 50c | 79.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed No | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…2530backed No | 44c | 56.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…8a13backed No | 61c | 54.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 31c | 49.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547d…4d30backed No | 66c | 43.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab32…98bcbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb0…d37ebacked No | 72c | 34.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a33…0f11backed No | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc459…c0fcbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…5192backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 73c | 29.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed No | 70c | 25.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…a77bbacked No | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc90c…9bb7backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.