Movies · resolved market
Will "Stranger Things" have 4+ seasons in Netflix's top 5 this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb6ff828b81844408a11d1cb9d5de38ed149aea024a9e0c11d3445b05e203e84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 3c | 8,944$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.05 | 329 | 24%79 W · 250 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,910$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.7 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…8f39backed Yes | 17c | 2,338$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…876cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,486$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,081$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 4c | 642.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 72c | 576.28$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.51 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 6c | 554.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20e3…e56dbacked Yes | 8c | 545.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 69c | 423.49$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…e673backed Yes | 15c | 277.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab66…ed33backed Yes | 37c | 269.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…ccc7backed Yes | 7c | 252.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…aeb8backed Yes | 12c | 221$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 9c | 207.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17b…6c89backed Yes | 10c | 205$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd2…3efbbacked Yes | 8c | 203.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac18…e6bcbacked Yes | 22c | 178.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 8c | 177.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 12c | 170$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99ac…a576backed Yes | 14c | 146.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed Yes | 9c | 128.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac7…dc0bbacked Yes | 11c | 106$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…6bccbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 91.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…47a8backed Yes | 27c | 73.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 34c | 39.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…cb85backed Yes | 62c | 33.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb30…722bbacked No | 44c | 29.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…5c24backed No | 80c | 16.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.