Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of August 10 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x823cef1166031e3c36af50894ebf4c31dc216b0b91e208c0b716cd209583e8e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72cb…5962backed Yes | 65c | 1,611$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.29 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134e…d718backed No | 33c | 1,466$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.64 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 60c | 767.91$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.5 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab97…2efbbacked Yes | 69c | 520.8$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 29c | 499.93$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.95 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…94f1backed Yes | 48c | 408.04$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.58 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d02…a8e7backed Yes | 59c | 341.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 337.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 68c | 314.15$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.36 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…bff4backed No | 75c | 266.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 9c | 257.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…cef9backed Yes | 59c | 236.52$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +159.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 53c | 224.54$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.54 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 215.62$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.04 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -18.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 72c | 200$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 6c | 181.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 54c | 166.26$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 134.08$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d34…17e8backed Yes | 10c | 124$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 41c | 113.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 27c | 104.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.03 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.38per pick | 49cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5154…a301backed Yes | 72c | 89.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +13.2wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c30…37b7backed Yes | 64c | 78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…9aeabacked Yes | 66c | 77.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9574…a119backed Yes | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda5…e16dbacked Yes | 32c | 64.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | +11.5wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 62c | 51.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f84…b4c4backed Yes | 71c | 48.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 64c | 48.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 50c | 47.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed Yes | 52c | 32.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedb…91fdbacked No | 79c | 26.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 68c | 25.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…189ebacked Yes | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 78cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6858…90f8backed Yes | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of August 10 2026?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of August 10 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of August 10 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,550 Week of August 10 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 Week of August 10 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of August 10 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of August 10 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,250 Week of August 10 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 Week of August 10 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.