Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 Week of August 10 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3101fba7941c86d0a7cf6573b5c9b05a2eabc6c911f20db5ee66e32385d4f7b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeda5…e16dbacked No | 40c | 418.67$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.7 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | +11.5wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 25c | 372.03$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…94f1backed No | 60c | 342.05$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.22 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 20c | 243.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8d…2a69backed No | 78c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 199.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x134e…d718backed No | 73c | 194.79$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaedb…91fdbacked No | 77c | 179.47$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 31c | 156.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -18.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…bff4backed No | 69c | 144.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb5…4d50backed Yes | 25c | 130.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 54c | 111.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 108.29$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 18c | 107$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed No | 68c | 101.11$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f02…0b2ebacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb217…e3cdbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 62c | 83.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…e7edbacked Yes | 78c | 63.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdba…3b6fbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 51c | 39.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 43c | 39.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -12.9wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe305…4a44backed Yes | 76c | 37.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…bdeebacked No | 65c | 35.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…5962backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 66c | 30.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 80c | 29.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 63c | 20.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f84…b4c4backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf138…60a4backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…08f9backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40b…ff6bbacked No | 73c | 16.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…e9cebacked Yes | 78c | 14.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 Week of August 10 2026?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of August 10 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of August 10 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of August 10 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,550 Week of August 10 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 Week of August 10 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of August 10 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of August 10 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,250 Week of August 10 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.