Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x780f952dfa7653e877ca668ce5b0a5c28ba185eb4c781651f2b1b9fc861fb278
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 3,912$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,526.22 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 18c | 2,501$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050.78 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…7318backed Yes | 17c | 1,814$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,505.25 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 50c | 1,642$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.89 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 74c | 1,554$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.72 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 810.75$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 21c | 729.21$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.95 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 653.33$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.31 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…55b6backed No | 3c | 581.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 78c | 482.64$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.92 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 39c | 466.89$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.43 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 19c | 426.33$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.16 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…4517backed Yes | 20c | 409.6$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.48 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 4c | 381.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.64 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 332.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 53c | 308.92$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.72 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…465cbacked Yes | 16c | 303.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.54 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 297.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 47c | 276.73$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.51 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 275.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 254.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.46 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 42c | 224.48$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.29 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 17c | 221.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.22 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed Yes | 43c | 211.23$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.33 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 51c | 208.18$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.47 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 9c | 201.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.99 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 13c | 190.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.72 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…c17fbacked Yes | 11c | 188.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +164.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 22c | 182.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.06 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297c…0f89backed Yes | 12c | 156.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.45 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 62c | 150.03$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 25c | 150$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 17c | 149.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.49 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 15c | 149.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.01 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 16c | 149.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.65 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 66c | 141.69$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x185b…0f27backed Yes | 63c | 136.49$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…1a76backed Yes | 72c | 130.51$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 19c | 129.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 29c | 126.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.53 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 25c | 121.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.37 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 17c | 113.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 24c | 113.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.94 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 37c | 99.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 53c | 98.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 14c | 97.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.01 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…610cbacked Yes | 19c | 95.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.33 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 21c | 92.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 15c | 91.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 13c | 91.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.43 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 14c | 90.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.05 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfa…bd06backed Yes | 63c | 89.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb5…57eabacked Yes | 17c | 85.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf51…9e89backed Yes | 14c | 81.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +158.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf70…4b1cbacked Yes | 53c | 72.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 72.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 79c | 68.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked Yes | 21c | 66.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb76d…636bbacked Yes | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 48c | 61.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…64a9backed Yes | 43c | 58.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…55fbbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ed…74cbbacked Yes | 50c | 47.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf14b…0c44backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 67c | 42.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 25c | 41.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd3…013fbacked Yes | 62c | 38.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…622cbacked No | 57c | 38.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 42c | 37.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc868…7bd7backed Yes | 27c | 37.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 35c | 37.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…ed07backed Yes | 66c | 35.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 42c | 33.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 55c | 32.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 60c | 29.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 27.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 77c | 27.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x761e…8343backed No | 70c | 26.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…2533backed No | 77c | 25.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7457…4fc4backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…0ea8backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.