Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x199116ee528708d24e9c843d467e979ccfe393ec8bfa43f499a12bfd6d46e430
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 9c | 3,483$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.16 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 28c | 1,595$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.86 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 32c | 1,102$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.84 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed No | 71c | 438.13$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.21 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 11c | 400.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 40c | 360.78$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.67 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 354.73$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 14c | 330$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 325.59$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.21 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 73c | 271.42$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.17 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 26c | 270$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 22c | 249.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 24c | 243.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34df…2982backed No | 65c | 241.14$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 230.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 43c | 216.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 21c | 204.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 5c | 200.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 12c | 194.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…3554backed Yes | 50c | 190.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.98 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 44c | 185.25$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.63 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 36c | 177.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 13c | 150.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 9c | 149.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 19c | 146.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 131.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 74c | 127.84$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 9c | 119.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 115.26$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 40c | 103.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 23c | 99.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 99.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 21c | 99.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 96.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 24c | 96.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 24c | 92.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 21c | 92.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 73c | 92.18$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 13c | 89.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 86.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 85.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 39c | 83.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 60c | 83.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 60c | 81.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 79c | 81.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 71c | 78.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 73c | 76.17$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4850…ab3bbacked No | 70c | 75.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 15c | 73.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 74c | 72.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 60c | 68.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…b245backed Yes | 21c | 67.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 73c | 66.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 77c | 65.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 30c | 61.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 72c | 61.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 73c | 57.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 57c | 56.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa035…7990backed No | 68c | 56.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 20c | 51.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 22c | 51.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 50.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…16e5backed Yes | 38c | 49.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 29c | 49.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 65c | 48.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 22c | 48.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe067…fa08backed Yes | 22c | 48.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 46.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed No | 63c | 45.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked Yes | 50c | 42.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 60c | 41.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…b590backed Yes | 46c | 41.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 72c | 41.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…c533backed Yes | 43c | 39.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 63c | 37.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 65c | 36.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 36.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…582dbacked No | 69c | 36.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 64c | 36.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 69c | 34.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 34.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 33.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 34c | 33.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…1b9dbacked Yes | 60c | 31.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 62c | 31.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 70c | 31.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 77c | 30.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 68c | 28.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…5c22backed Yes | 41c | 28.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 56c | 25.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ca28backed No | 78c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…f896backed Yes | 57c | 23.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.