Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85bdc32630f51f22bbb41ace3ee8f4b5b960553a45395eb8302694e7506d5e0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bf3…55b6backed Yes | 0c | 13,506$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 20c | 4,217$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.33 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,380$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 59c | 1,091$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.42 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 36c | 1,039$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.09 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 733.86$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.99 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 66c | 590.39$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.83 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 37c | 533.28$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.75 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 14c | 532$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 5c | 468.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 60c | 435.79$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.32 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 52c | 367.84$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.45 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 70c | 337.08$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.73 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 61c | 327.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 306$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 49c | 295.51$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.58 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c7…797cbacked Yes | 46c | 278.69$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 47c | 250.32$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.87 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 42c | 222.78$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.05 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 52c | 209.8$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.28 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d5…cac7backed No | 47c | 209.18$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 38c | 197.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 192.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 38c | 187.95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.43 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…eadfbacked Yes | 45c | 178.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…8623backed Yes | 58c | 156$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 37c | 149.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 32c | 149.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 46c | 146.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed No | 49c | 145.34$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.13 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 49c | 144.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 136.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 49c | 134.78$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.28 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 46c | 134.43$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 59c | 124.27$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 49c | 121.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x444f…1469backed Yes | 58c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Yes | 52c | 119.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 103.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…c533backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8de…614dbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 48c | 99.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 56c | 99.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 42c | 91.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…1b9dbacked Yes | 55c | 91.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 37c | 90.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 27c | 90.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…b245backed Yes | 54c | 86.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 37c | 86.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.13 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 58c | 86.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 85.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 43c | 85.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 68c | 85.11$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 35c | 84.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 80.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5428…1c69backed No | 75c | 78.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 57c | 76.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 49c | 74.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e02abacked Yes | 51c | 74.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 53c | 71.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 28c | 69.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 34c | 67.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 74c | 67.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 57c | 64.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 72c | 63.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 54c | 59.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked No | 51c | 58.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 76c | 57.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 65c | 55.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…4517backed No | 54c | 53.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 48c | 51.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…55fbbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc926…98c8backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…c78fbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes | 33c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 53c | 49.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…16e5backed Yes | 38c | 49.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 78c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 46c | 47.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfa…bd06backed Yes | 61c | 47.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe067…fa08backed Yes | 42c | 46.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 23c | 45.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 58c | 43.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1232…d20abacked Yes | 37c | 42.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…2533backed Yes | 46c | 41.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde00…53f6backed No | 65c | 40.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…db04backed Yes | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…541ebacked No | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ff…3abfbacked No | 48c | 39.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.