AI · resolved market
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29cea46e75ca53e34aeb642f47481aaae5c3505d06e86467a2d584d599d7e96d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 56c | 961.73$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.52 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8d…c245backed Yes | 66c | 754.01$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 38c | 597.77$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.43 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 42c | 558.75$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.63 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x456b…38d3backed Yes | 39c | 526.45$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 34c | 389.92$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.83 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 36c | 329.94$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.64 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…c537backed Yes | 74c | 322.07$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.96 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.32per pick | 63cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked No | 64c | 302.06$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.41 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0136…94cdbacked Yes | 36c | 276.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 63c | 218.12$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.7 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 26c | 184.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.19 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 37c | 119.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed Yes | 31c | 112$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 60c | 99.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…c671backed Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…51eebacked Yes | 49c | 65.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes | 20c | 64.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9492…3c58backed No | 74c | 56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…9b64backed Yes | 60c | 50.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b1…b066backed Yes | 26c | 46.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 44c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…51c8backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf07c…c577backed Yes | 48c | 37.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb92f…58c4backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…5cc2backed Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…91dcbacked No | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed Yes | 67c | 29.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 38c | 28.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…510dbacked No | 39c | 27.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f04…242bbacked Yes | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…32c1backed No | 63c | 17.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 74c | 17.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 31?this page
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.