TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb92f…58c4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
617
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Ncaa Basketball, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Ncaa Basketball at 55 out of 100; worst MLB at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT30653.3%163 W · 143 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 306 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverevbacked Jannik Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$40.85
Iasi: Titouan Droguet vs Zsombor Pirosbacked Titouan Droguet · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Contrexeville: Mayar Sherif vs Jeline Vandrommebacked Mayar Sherif · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+131.6%+$27.09
Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Zverevbacked Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Swedish Open, Qualification: Elmer Moeller vs Thomas Faurelbacked Elmer Moeller · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Hugo Gastonbacked Jan Choinski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$75.44
Trieste: Matej Dodig vs Hugo Dellienbacked Hugo Dellien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$58.71
Iasi Open, Qualification: Georgina Garcia Perez vs Andreea Prisacariubacked Andreea Prisacariu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Linda Noskovabacked Karolina Muchova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Iasi: Zsombor Piros vs Jerome Kymbacked Zsombor Piros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+82.9%+$82.91
Contrexeville: Mayar Sherif vs Leolia Jeanjeanbacked Leolia Jeanjean · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Swiss Open, Qualification: Otto Virtanen vs Dylan Dietrichbacked Otto Virtanen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.5
Newport: Alexis Galarneau vs Daniel Milavskybacked Alexis Galarneau · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+56%+$56.03
Iasi: Valentin Royer vs Taro Danielbacked Valentin Royer · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+44.7%+$43.2
Wimbledon WTA (Doubles): Guo/Mladenovic vs Jiang/Xubacked Guo/Mladenovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+79%+$79.02
Newport: Arthur Gea vs Adam Waltonbacked Adam Walton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$75.44
Braunschweig: Jan Choinski vs Diego Dedura-Palomerobacked Jan Choinski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$72.41
Nottingham 3: Clement Chidekh vs Ivan Ivanovbacked Clement Chidekh · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+54.1%+$54.06
Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovicbacked Felix Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Daria Kasatkina vs Liudmila Samsonovabacked Liudmila Samsonova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Dammbacked Arthur Rinderknech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedevbacked Daniil Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$44.34
Valencia: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Matteo Berrettinibacked Camilo Ugo Carabelli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+152.5%+$76.25
Valencia: Damir Dzumhur vs Jaume Munarbacked Jaume Munar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+703.1%+$140.62
Oeiras 4: Petr Brunclik vs Jaime Fariabacked Petr Brunclik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Showing 25 of 306 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT13862.3%86 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 138 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 4 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$31.58
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+38.4%+$38.41
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+100%+$100
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 3 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON - Game 2 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$16.72
LoL: ZYB Esport vs Vitality.Bee (BO3) - LFL Playoffsbacked Vitality.Bee · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$32.48
LoL: Esprit Shōnen vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport - Game 1 Winnerbacked Ici Japon Corp. Esport · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+37%+$18.49
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs 7REX - Game 3 Winnerbacked paiN Gaming Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+67.7%+$20.3
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs 7REX - Game 1 Winnerbacked paiN Gaming Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$7.17
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winnerbacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$33.33
LoL: Disguised vs Dignitas - Game 1 Winnerbacked Disguised · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+26%+$13.02
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winnerbacked Sentinels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$22.46
LoL: Disguised vs Dignitas - Game 2 Winnerbacked Disguised · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$20.42
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$15.79
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked Movistar KOI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winnerbacked Movistar KOI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
LoL: GIANTX vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winnerbacked Movistar KOI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$13.29
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$23.53
LoL: Vitality.Bee vs Galions (BO3) - LFL Playoffsbacked Galions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$14.94
Showing 25 of 138 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2026, EDT7759.7%46 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 77 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 1 Winnerbacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$53.85
Valorant: G2 Esports vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winnerbacked 100 Thieves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffsbacked FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.25
Valorant: Sentinels vs NRG - Map 1 Winnerbacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+30.1%+$15.04
Valorant: LOUD vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winnerbacked LOUD · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$46.15
Valorant: LOUD vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alphabacked LOUD · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+30.2%+$15.11
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX - Map 1 Winnerbacked DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omegabacked KRÜ Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$19.77
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+158.1%+$79.04
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffsbacked Rex Regum Qeon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Valorant: Division One vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winnerbacked Division One · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$31.28
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 Winnerbacked M80 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$8.22
Valorant: TYLOO vs All Gamers - Map 2 Winnerbacked All Gamers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Valorant: TYLOO vs All Gamers - Map 1 Winnerbacked TYLOO · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Valorant: All Gamers vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winnerbacked All Gamers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Valorant: All Gamers vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winnerbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$34.75
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs JD Gaming - Map 2 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Valorant: LOUD vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alphabacked LOUD · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+116.3%+$58.17
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omegabacked Rex Regum Qeon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+35.2%+$35.22
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Map 2 Winnerbacked Rex Regum Qeon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+79.9%+$15.98
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX - Map 2 Winnerbacked DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omegabacked KRÜ Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winnerbacked KRÜ Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$19.44
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alphabacked Nongshim RedForce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 1 Winnerbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Showing 25 of 77 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT3256.3%18 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group Bbacked Sinners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+150%+$75
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group Bbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners - Map 1 Winnerbacked Passion UA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+25%+$12.5
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group Bbacked GamerLegion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+64%+$25.61
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 - Map 2 Winnerbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs R2 Esports Club (BO3) - CCT South America Series #1 Group Stagebacked paiN Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$22.55
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 3 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$14.1
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$24.63
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$24.63
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+70.3%+$14.07
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffsbacked FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.42
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 1 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+100%+$20
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffsbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winnerbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$5.89
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$16.57
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 1 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+38.4%+$7.55
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 2 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$5.89
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.53
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit - Map 1 Winnerbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.56
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winnerbacked B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$32.77
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Abacked Gentle Mates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.7
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 1 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.6
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT2147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$52.04
76ers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.29
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
76ers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spurs vs. Trail Blazersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+150%+$28.92
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$5.57
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+900%+$170.28
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7.65
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$5.89
Hornets vs. Magicbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.18
Warriors vs. Kingsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.27
Clippers vs. Trail Blazersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.03
76ers vs. Rocketsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.88
Trail Blazers vs. Spursbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.12
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+150%+$144.6
Magic vs. Pelicansbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$13.12
Hornets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+59.4%+$58.07
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 233.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.59
Warriors vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$58.65
Knicks vs. Hornetsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 21 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+119.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sabres vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.86
Avalanche vs. Oilersbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+93.3%+$18.65
Stars vs. Bruinsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Blackhawks vs. Devils: O/U 7.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Bruins vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+1,412.1%+$463.62
Predators vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+54.2%+$54.22
Capitals vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: Stars (-1.5)backed Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Avalanche vs. Jetsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$66.67
Avalanche vs. Jets: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$72.41
All 10 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Ningbo Rocketsbacked Guangdong Southern Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$61.5
Fujian Sturgeons vs. Zhejiang Golden Bullsbacked Zhejiang Golden Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.63
Ningbo Rockets vs. Zhejiang Lionsbacked Zhejiang Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$14.7
Jiangsu Dragons vs. Beijing Royal Fightersbacked Beijing Royal Fighters · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.41
Fujian Sturgeons vs. Liaoning Flying Leopardsbacked Liaoning Flying Leopards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+66.8%+$65.82
All 5 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.53
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padresbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.39
Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$21.84
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.49
Athletics vs. New York Yankeesbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.58
All 5 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+32.9%+$32.89
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+32.9%+$32.89
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$29.87
All 3 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.48
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$15.92
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.1
All 2 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+80.2%+$16.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$26.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$11.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.