TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
T1of T1, Dplus KIA
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$843,152
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$966,347

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $843,152 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 616 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Dplus KIA40c88,820$35,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,470.7355955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed T160c59,199$35,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,723.361,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Dplus KIA41c30,952$12,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,796.551,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed T159c29,655$17,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,161.0451146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Dplus KIA41c22,098$9,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,009.031,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Dplus KIA40c20,727$8,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,369.390348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Dplus KIA39c20,469$7,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,978.151,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed T160c20,000$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,00064155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked T159c18,200$10,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,46257246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8f…de20backed T165c15,008$9,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,230.4812652.4%66 W · 60 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Dplus KIA39c13,237$5,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,222.741,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Dplus KIA12c13,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56067552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Dplus KIA42c12,426$5,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,255.581,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Dplus KIA38c12,391$4,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,680.1667760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed T162c11,750$7,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,46559450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Dplus KIA42c11,267$4,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,721.441,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Dplus KIA37c11,109$4,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,161.111,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed T159c10,802$6,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,387.2681143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Dplus KIA41c10,500$4,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,253.1370456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8479…40dfbacked Dplus KIA38c10,070$3,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,826.624528.9%13 W · 32 L-7.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-33.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x21d0…42b1backed T161c10,000$6,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9005942.4%25 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9024…a444backed Dplus KIA1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100482.1%1 W · 47 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-74%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked Dplus KIA41c10,000$4,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,099.9814549.7%72 W · 73 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked T179c8,525$6,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,792.3270162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked T162c8,380$5,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,190.748844.3%216 W · 272 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed T158c8,250$4,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,434.9831036.1%112 W · 198 L-18.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked T162c8,100$5,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0422,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc623…5808backed T160c8,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,20012446%57 W · 67 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b49…04a8backed T161c8,000$4,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,09039964.4%257 W · 142 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1887…f75dbacked T161c7,683$4,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,973.4812945.7%59 W · 70 L-12.8wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-25%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Dplus KIA38c7,200$2,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,735.9910353.4%55 W · 48 L+9.4wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Dplus KIA17c7,127$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.7552848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Dplus KIA28c7,000$1,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,943.511,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Dplus KIA41c6,917$2,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,835.841,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked T164c6,547$4,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,339.881,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked T164c6,255$3,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,257.1995041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked T160c6,199$3,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,508.326549.1%130 W · 135 L+21.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Dplus KIA41c6,108$2,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,504.331,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Dplus KIA38c6,093$2,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,315.5153750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked T159c5,719$3,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,338.4237640.2%151 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed T162c5,498$3,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,094.8876142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked T163c5,362$3,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,977.31,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24c7…77c4backed Dplus KIA19c5,226$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009344.1%41 W · 52 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Dplus KIA42c5,221$2,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,212.51,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53a5…55dfbacked Dplus KIA34c5,207$1,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,771.4243358.2%252 W · 181 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c8…cf96backed Dplus KIA31c5,124$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,575.277341.1%30 W · 43 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick32cpaid-15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa87d…e4bfbacked Dplus KIA5c5,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid+141.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x642c…21a7backed T162c5,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,90035054.6%191 W · 159 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Dplus KIA38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.9930845.1%139 W · 169 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed Dplus KIA33c4,795$1,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,578.0154246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed Dplus KIA44c4,762$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,095.2451348%246 W · 267 L+25.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ac4…7310backed T179c4,517$3,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.2213854.3%75 W · 63 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6204…0b06backed Dplus KIA36c4,493$1,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,627.2332440.4%131 W · 193 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Dplus KIA38c4,444$1,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,688.7235431.1%110 W · 244 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed T166c4,380$2,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,476.481,24242.6%529 W · 713 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked Dplus KIA36c4,334$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,546.0353355%293 W · 240 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x50b1…861bbacked Dplus KIA16c4,250$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.9433949%166 W · 173 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed T161c3,765$2,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,461.451,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed T163c3,561$2,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.9346257.8%267 W · 195 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed T163c3,485$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.7685442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8896…7c53backed Dplus KIA30c3,474$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.7318561.1%113 W · 72 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed T160c3,474$2,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.571,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70e5…b0d3backed T162c3,409$2,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.411921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Dplus KIA24c3,408$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.961,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6dd…40cebacked T174c3,357$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.024339.5%17 W · 26 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-34.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Dplus KIA39c3,043$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.141,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked Dplus KIA40c3,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.171,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed T160c3,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20048440.5%196 W · 288 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked T162c2,749$1,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.6267250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed Dplus KIA37c2,505$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.2424147.3%114 W · 127 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fd1…bfe8backed Dplus KIA32c2,500$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80555639.6%220 W · 336 L+32.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ced…0feebacked T159c2,452$1,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.1276955%423 W · 346 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x895d…11d5backed T162c2,374$1,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.194461.4%27 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x663d…2dd4backed T163c2,326$1,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.7417155%94 W · 77 L+16.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbf29…da00backed Dplus KIA42c2,316$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.6921948.4%106 W · 113 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Dplus KIA39c2,254$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.0258850.5%297 W · 291 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ac5…bb92backed T160c2,250$1,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.511439.5%45 W · 69 L-11.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-30%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6fc3…6c57backed Dplus KIA41c2,195$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.044963.3%31 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Dplus KIA35c2,103$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.5813936%50 W · 89 L-0.5wins0.00per pick36cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd408…e85cbacked T166c2,075$1,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.5238462%238 W · 146 L-0.4wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41e…9350backed Dplus KIA19c2,069$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.1711736.8%43 W · 74 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+46.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked Dplus KIA41c2,068$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.8895847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Dplus KIA5c2,046$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.287869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Dplus KIA34c2,003$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.8974250.5%375 W · 367 L-1.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked Dplus KIA39c2,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78051160.3%308 W · 203 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Dplus KIA42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8401,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked T158c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8409248.9%45 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Dplus KIA7c1,981$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.6619041.1%78 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed T162c1,970$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.3816439%64 W · 100 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9867…ea53backed Dplus KIA41c1,969$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.2913752.6%72 W · 65 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Dplus KIA42c1,967$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.21,18548.1%570 W · 615 L-2.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd11…8acfbacked Dplus KIA9c1,957$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.592817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb063…fa55backed Dplus KIA41c1,929$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8005759.6%34 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17d6…f1e2backed Dplus KIA38c1,911$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.119938.4%38 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b0b…12ffbacked Dplus KIA1c1,868$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.688637.2%32 W · 54 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cf5…8483backed T164c1,808$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.0617961.5%110 W · 69 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked T159c1,800$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7381,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed Dplus KIA40c1,750$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.991,21352.3%635 W · 578 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed T161c1,722$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.6525143.4%109 W · 142 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed T176c1,700$1,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.8241439.6%164 W · 250 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.