TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Kings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kingsof Warriors, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,846,383
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,880,989

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,846,383 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 910 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x959a…7b64backed Warriors47c206,703$96,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,993.93357.6%19 W · 14 L+5.3wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+42%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x606e…1ec9backed Warriors53c127,633$67,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,624.3520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Kings18c112,284$20,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,072.6172648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Kings35c77,990$27,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,853.431,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d90…1310backed Warriors65c56,064$36,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,423.2415274.3%113 W · 39 L+22.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+24.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Kings54c52,639$28,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,381.8270147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Kings37c51,646$19,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,435.932,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Kings25c46,233$11,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,712.7249244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ad…a55cbacked Kings55c43,778$23,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,814.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Kings39c40,146$15,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,494.372,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Warriors45c39,968$18,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,134.4326337.3%98 W · 165 L-1.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Kings19c35,794$6,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,993.2532653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Warriors31c31,018$9,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,704.891,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd737…be95backed Kings64c28,209$18,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,169.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Kings19c27,591$5,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,348.3948343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Warriors9c26,093$2,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,348.61,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Warriors48c24,059$11,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,604.311,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x073a…91e7backed Warriors44c21,909$9,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,639.933641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c45…0ac6backed Warriors49c20,969$10,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,274.071225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Warriors15c20,665$3,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,112.9989850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Kings17c19,286$3,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,018.9961851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Warriors54c18,579$10,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,037.442,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed Warriors76c15,963$12,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,150.078750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked Warriors45c14,901$6,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,705.496043.3%26 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Warriors41c14,523$6,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,011.333,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31c1…7047backed Kings54c14,498$7,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,733.354264.3%27 W · 15 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Warriors44c14,390$6,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,361.8118941.8%79 W · 110 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc690…42b8backed Warriors73c12,577$9,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,180.87728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.8wins-0.40per pick69cpaid-58.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb17c…e5c2backed Warriors0c12,277$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Kings36c12,169$4,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,735.859646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1333…173bbacked Warriors77c12,169$9,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,370.133941%16 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Kings23c11,526$2,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,877.2435547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Kings38c11,008$4,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,859.715850.6%80 W · 78 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed Warriors62c10,766$6,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,665.1316959.8%101 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29ac…ea58backed Warriors60c10,273$6,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,168.771040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Warriors46c10,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,60010158.4%59 W · 42 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4440…959abacked Warriors47c10,000$4,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,6507035.7%25 W · 45 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1251…9ccfbacked Kings20c9,521$1,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,604.562454.2%13 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+118%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Kings44c8,736$3,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,928.3366248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Kings34c8,735$3,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,731.619650.5%99 W · 97 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Warriors27c8,671$2,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,333.7293148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Kings50c8,334$4,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,167.1974748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Warriors7c7,884$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.571,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Warriors58c7,638$4,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,431.7410743%46 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Warriors78c7,290$5,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,656.276850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd41a…fd60backed Kings36c6,824$2,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,400.13148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Warriors6c6,652$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.7238434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9b…a5ebbacked Warriors54c6,069$3,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,294.0513544.4%60 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Kings55c5,909$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,658.949857.1%56 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7120…7c4ebacked Warriors6c5,805$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.78923.6%21 W · 68 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48d…5182backed Warriors58c5,721$3,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,345.624671.7%33 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Kings18c5,666$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,626.0520537.1%76 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e9c…6421backed Kings19c5,221$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,228.961020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Warriors58c5,124$2,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,953.0236023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Warriors1c5,100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.48820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf874…b5efbacked Warriors50c5,027$2,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,495.885851.7%30 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6551…e043backed Kings19c5,000$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0504548.9%22 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Warriors0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Warriors25c4,515$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.811,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaba…51debacked Kings73c4,250$3,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.7110947.7%52 W · 57 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Kings14c4,178$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,608.9224831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8bd…463dbacked Kings27c4,162$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,041.8938261.5%235 W · 147 L+30.8wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked Warriors63c4,000$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,519.9914243%61 W · 81 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Warriors47c3,922$1,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,848.2763746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Kings62c3,905$2,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,496.931,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x844e…4efdbacked Kings55c3,892$2,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,751.45352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+33.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Kings51c3,798$1,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,871.4424937.3%93 W · 156 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Warriors60c3,721$2,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,237.61,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Kings61c3,665$2,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,429.4626444.7%118 W · 146 L-15.8wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kings47c3,608$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,907.728,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf78…7736backed Kings56c3,477$1,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.94540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa73a…656abacked Warriors52c3,454$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800.325226.6%67 W · 185 L-26.7wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Warriors1c3,449$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.497211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Kings34c3,355$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,198.915,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Warriors43c3,331$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,428.9944345.1%200 W · 243 L+2.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Warriors36c3,128$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.0789444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Warriors59c3,124$1,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,856.4712142.1%51 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Kings32c3,046$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,070.9413534.1%46 W · 89 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20f6…0f69backed Warriors49c3,019$1,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470.639347.3%44 W · 49 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1520…378fbacked Kings19c3,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,429.9920453.9%110 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Warriors63c2,981$1,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,865.7313245.5%60 W · 72 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Warriors28c2,964$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.1715219.7%30 W · 122 L-26.5wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-63.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9c2b…ec52backed Warriors61c2,930$1,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.442466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Warriors50c2,910$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45525945.6%118 W · 141 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Kings30c2,874$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,011.872241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Warriors57c2,781$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,575.4811040%44 W · 66 L+0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02ca…30f9backed Warriors9c2,741$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.0613153.4%70 W · 61 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Warriors45c2,708$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.9723833.2%79 W · 159 L-19.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-47.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Warriors29c2,654$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.481,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Warriors58c2,579$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,488.285740.4%23 W · 34 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Warriors47c2,575$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,210.2529849.3%147 W · 151 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd5…3b78backed Kings16c2,509$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,109.18326.5%22 W · 61 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Kings19c2,500$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,02586641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Kings19c2,500$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,024.9843438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6584…88c0backed Warriors24c2,384$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.656240.3%25 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Kings23c2,334$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,805.6619047.4%90 W · 100 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Warriors64c2,295$1,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468.9262144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a89…8e52backed Warriors65c2,259$1,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468.5110144.6%45 W · 56 L-9.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-28.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Warriors3c2,183$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4917042.4%72 W · 98 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Warriors46c2,174$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9964944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.