NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3e2c5d0749299a414447e296295eeeb353f97e1c76ab526092a50236a54f7a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 44c | 2,837$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.13 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Over | 57c | 2,543$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.59 | 208 | 43.8%91 W · 117 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 62c | 1,863$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.82 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 57c | 1,553$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.76 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 1,077$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.28 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 885.45$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.48 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Over | 65c | 753.08$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.58 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Under | 38c | 565.12$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.95 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 54c | 540.22$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.5 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.88 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 42c | 488.36$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.85 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 46c | 486.69$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.64 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Under | 49c | 393.78$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.95 | 357 | 44.3%158 W · 199 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 57c | 251.87$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.53 | 313 | 45%141 W · 172 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Over | 65c | 187.95$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 47c | 169.04$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…d703backed Over | 60c | 162.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Over | 53c | 162.44$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 184 | 59.2%109 W · 75 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 47c | 145.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.01 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 7c | 143.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…7ddebacked Over | 74c | 126.38$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 107.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5bc0backed Over | 54c | 98.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Over | 55c | 97.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 400 | 53.5%214 W · 186 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 41c | 96.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 90.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 45c | 86.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…9a46backed Over | 60c | 75.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…7f2ebacked Under | 40c | 72.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa517…a62dbacked Over | 51c | 63.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7c…4394backed Over | 74c | 61.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 34c | 61.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 49.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 54c | 48.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 61c | 48.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Under | 26c | 48.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4240…0df4backed Over | 59c | 47.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 77c | 44.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Over | 66c | 44.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 137 | 49.6%68 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 41c | 38.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 41c | 38.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fb…8b8bbacked Over | 54c | 36.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 41c | 32.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 41c | 32.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 41c | 32.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 44c | 23.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b56…724fbacked Over | 66c | 17.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Over | 67c | 16.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 931 | 48.4%451 W · 480 L | +34.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 227.5this page
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)Kings won
- Spread: Warriors (-11.5)Kings won
- Warriors vs. KingsKings won
- Warriors vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Warriors vs. Kings: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.