TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,866
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,338

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,866 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5095…93eebacked Yes32c5,305$1,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,691.6529642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd5c…f5c4backed Yes4c3,777$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes58c3,416$1,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,978.1523639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes35c2,670$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.3323321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed No77c1,932$1,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.629735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes18c1,900$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.425311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd08…bd74backed No67c1,644$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.521250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed Yes10c1,600$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601729.4%5 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.21per pick9cpaid+344.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes3c1,320$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.632814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes41c1,093$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.131258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xde45…8238backed Yes33c1,085$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.051216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-72.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xccc2…271abacked Yes33c1,064$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.121957.9%11 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+71.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes37c983.17$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.9114530.3%44 W · 101 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes15c933.71$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.3932739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes20c702.66$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.7426431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes26c671$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.8213735%48 W · 89 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f5…d7aabacked No59c669$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.291361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick35cpaid+74.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes37c605.42$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.974721.3%10 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-59.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91af…95c8backed No30c550$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3851258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+48.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3acc…973dbacked Yes70c527.03$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.92825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Yes35c499.92$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.974742.6%20 W · 27 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes16c454.77$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7615149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2145…1e5dbacked No59c424$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.841030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No75c399.99$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.088752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes25c398.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.79434%32 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No64c356.76$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.538351.8%43 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes27c356.34$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7228524.2%69 W · 216 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed No67c310$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.33056.7%17 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked Yes21c280$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.112936.4%47 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No72c225.55$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2516741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No69c220.15$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.485757.9%33 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes27c208.32$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.661,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5047328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xab18…467dbacked Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143423.5%8 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-42.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed No67c195$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.352152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e39…8e7abacked Yes14c181.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.47955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6680…c738backed Yes37c170.18$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6110544.8%47 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a51…e067backed Yes24c127$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes36c121.7$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7829423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe63…cb9ebacked Yes16c119$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes62c115$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9213820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No56c112.44$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.1613333.1%44 W · 89 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9fcb…4982backed Yes14c112$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…f399backed Yes14c111$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1024…03c5backed Yes59c109.46$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x084b…d738backed Yes16c109$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4060…1baebacked Yes14c106$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes16c105.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8510814.8%16 W · 92 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2219…439fbacked Yes14c105$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb910…ac48backed Yes24c97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes46c93.86$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.43520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-73%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No51c93.15$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3816015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xa009…ab48backed Yes23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203948.7%19 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes37c86.08$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323461.8%21 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35dd…6a93backed Yes14c84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes51c72.74$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.912441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb65…90acbacked No77c58$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes47c57.74$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1617540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d7c…3e7abacked Yes57c55$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.392944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed Yes41c54.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.361662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No59c53.3$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.651872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes41c51.03$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.67355.7%2 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x983a…ca05backed Yes35c50.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.75425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68b…385fbacked No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked Yes65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.56331.7%20 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No61c49.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6119240.6%78 W · 114 L-20.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No41c45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.763619.4%7 W · 29 L-9.7wins-0.27per pick46cpaid-65.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x5e6b…fb69backed No76c42$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd637…7617backed Yes39c36.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.06250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f77…d985backed Yes50c36.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x989e…528abacked No50c36.2$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb92f…58c4backed Yes71c35.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a05…8573backed No70c33$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc3f…2790backed No76c31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed No57c30.81$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.46150.8%31 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f9…46b0backed No76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a09…34c9backed No73c28.43$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda9b…b2a9backed Yes67c27.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.361546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6af…532dbacked No72c26.22$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.474100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19db…7636backed Yes41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.255646.4%26 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x732d…ca85backed No76c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed Yes61c21.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.36152.5%32 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5559…5d13backed No76c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb313…3877backed No76c17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No74c14.78$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7720850%104 W · 104 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.