Movies · resolved market
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5baf99f73ef149d56b0f21994dbacbad6eec5e19cf532d2489b8beaa8b166b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 34c | 3,288$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,181.37 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 45c | 3,005$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,654.12 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 80c | 2,689$2,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.84 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 47c | 1,667$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.95 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 30c | 1,127$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.23 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 59c | 1,110$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.58 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 34c | 835.18$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.1 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 39c | 762.48$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.77 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 680.99$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.83 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 16c | 649.69$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.8 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 74c | 599.99$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.99 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 48c | 500$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 50c | 498.49$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.25 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 54c | 452.4$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.49 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 43c | 338.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.18 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 47c | 336.01$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.4 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 32c | 304.59$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 302.66$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.99 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 26c | 280$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.2 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfe…1afcbacked No | 52c | 251.17$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.07 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed No | 54c | 249.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 49c | 240.87$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.96 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 36c | 210$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.06 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 32c | 189.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 71c | 165.48$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.18 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 141.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 23c | 133.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 37c | 79.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 26c | 76.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee9…a6c1backed No | 38c | 45.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 58c | 42.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…ad52backed No | 51c | 41.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 41c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad9c…56a9backed No | 78c | 39.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 80c | 34.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…97b0backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 49c | 24.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…2707backed Yes | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 62c | 16.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m?this page
- Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?No won
- Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?No won
- Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m?No won
- Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.