NHL · resolved market
Spread: Stars (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce0ce76f6a0dcb5fc42316ba13f7947b54e8dd42b1acea44bc6d1e1d4589d9be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Starsof Stars, Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x009b…e769backed Stars | 34c | 3,005$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,983.3 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…9c62backed Stars | 34c | 2,784$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,837.78 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Penguins | 66c | 2,222$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.51 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Penguins | 66c | 1,573$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.89 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Penguins | 66c | 774.08$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.89 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Penguins | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Penguins | 61c | 485.01$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.29 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Stars | 32c | 322.85$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.85 | 249 | 52.2%130 W · 119 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Penguins | 66c | 284.85$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…0020backed Penguins | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Stars | 62c | 263.16$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Penguins | 67c | 251.71$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.63 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Stars | 30c | 205.75$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.02 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Stars | 32c | 181$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.75 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe96…4a6dbacked Penguins | 75c | 180.45$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.51 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…6e05backed Stars | 42c | 172.41$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb92f…58c4backed Penguins | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Stars | 48c | 136$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Penguins | 70c | 114.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Penguins | 70c | 114.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…731cbacked Stars | 31c | 110.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -9.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Penguins | 56c | 101.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Penguins | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Penguins | 37c | 97.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Penguins | 69c | 73.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Penguins | 67c | 58.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Stars | 30c | 57.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Stars | 62c | 52.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Penguins | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Penguins | 39c | 45.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Stars | 34c | 44.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Penguins | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Stars | 47c | 33.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…8105backed Stars | 44c | 33.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed Stars | 36c | 33.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Penguins | 67c | 33.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Penguins | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Penguins | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Stars | 46c | 25.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Penguins | 78c | 24.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Penguins | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Penguins | 55c | 18.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…e75fbacked Penguins | 70c | 18.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Penguins | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)this page
- Stars vs. PenguinsStars won
- Stars vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Stars vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Stars vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Stars vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.