NHL · resolved market
Stars vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcb9d39e853cd57757c0a3cc56091d781392f58d9332814fc453bea2557850d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 54c | 5,145$2,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,759.33 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Over | 45c | 1,970$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.44 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…3038backed Under | 55c | 1,373$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 53c | 1,161$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.11 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Over | 45c | 574.78$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.13 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 47c | 530.98$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.42 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 47c | 510.53$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.58 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 471.48$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.27 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Under | 53c | 418.87$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…0020backed Under | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09d3…3128backed Under | 55c | 205.09$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 61c | 198.41$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.38 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 54c | 166.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 46c | 140.05$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Over | 40c | 94.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 55c | 56.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 61c | 56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0708…3b30backed Under | 39c | 51.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 65c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Over | 46c | 42.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 65c | 39.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 48c | 36.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…053ebacked Under | 55c | 36.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Under | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 54c | 31.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 52c | 28.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 53c | 22.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 477 | 53.9%257 W · 220 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Over | 71c | 20.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 211 | 58.8%124 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…1e6bbacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stars vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Stars won
- Stars vs. PenguinsStars won
- Stars vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Stars vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Stars vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.