TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, FaZe
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$477,881
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$606,689

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $477,881 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 348 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked FaZe36c69,096$24,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,545.7742440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Natus Vincere64c46,008$29,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,612.8641649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Natus Vincere64c35,000$22,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,60076058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9368…80a3backed Natus Vincere65c27,752$17,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,760.464744.7%21 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Natus Vincere59c16,451$9,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,737.333,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d4d…8525backed Natus Vincere55c16,009$8,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,281.961942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4e7…6a52backed FaZe36c13,000$4,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,6801952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa113…284ebacked FaZe39c12,117$4,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,696.5420935.4%74 W · 135 L-21.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-27.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed FaZe36c11,111$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.9533343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked FaZe36c10,694$3,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,8509232.6%30 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed FaZe36c10,529$3,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,790.370%0 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed FaZe45c9,812$4,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,402.8550054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Natus Vincere64c8,926$5,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,213.3317643.2%76 W · 100 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked FaZe16c6,865$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.7140140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked FaZe23c6,060$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,373.051,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed FaZe29c5,554$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,611.51,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FaZe36c5,385$1,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,918.545,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed FaZe21c5,287$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.1288746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Natus Vincere63c5,001$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,850.253746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FaZe20c4,965$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.771,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked Natus Vincere65c4,700$3,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,64527658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb246…8561backed FaZe36c4,680$1,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,684.81526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41bb…26e8backed Natus Vincere58c4,464$2,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,855.29254.3%50 W · 42 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed Natus Vincere59c4,090$2,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,674.3137157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere59c3,647$2,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,491.873,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed FaZe14c3,258$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.7632425.3%82 W · 242 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c2…23adbacked FaZe33c3,065$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008748.3%42 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed FaZe14c3,000$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.538868.3%265 W · 123 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+3.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked FaZe36c2,778$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00026045%117 W · 143 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed FaZe56c2,758$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.5255043.1%237 W · 313 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7193…ae51backed Natus Vincere55c2,731$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.529858.4%174 W · 124 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked FaZe33c2,601$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.551,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Natus Vincere78c2,548$1,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.381,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Natus Vincere50c2,373$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.0475245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked FaZe12c2,270$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.682,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Natus Vincere53c2,265$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.2237646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f4e…9557backed FaZe27c2,230$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-75.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked FaZe35c2,199$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.071,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf5…8483backed Natus Vincere64c2,180$1,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.6911061.8%68 W · 42 L+0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked FaZe55c2,036$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.733457.8%193 W · 141 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked FaZe62c1,951$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.7244957.5%258 W · 191 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8668…7f8fbacked FaZe33c1,856$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.6413343.6%58 W · 75 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked Natus Vincere59c1,852$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.337441.7%156 W · 218 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4db1…4adcbacked FaZe32c1,835$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked Natus Vincere76c1,815$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.6339970.7%282 W · 117 L+38.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked FaZe3c1,800$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5269624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed FaZe29c1,785$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.6287047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2785…ce75backed Natus Vincere63c1,764$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.5213550.4%68 W · 67 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed FaZe37c1,676$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.1242651.6%220 W · 206 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked FaZe36c1,667$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.1235242.9%151 W · 201 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked FaZe37c1,622$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60065650.3%330 W · 326 L-15.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed FaZe36c1,610$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.625248.8%123 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed FaZe11c1,600$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.9960838.2%232 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere60c1,554$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.326,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc5d…39abbacked FaZe2c1,450$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Natus Vincere63c1,413$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.723354.9%128 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x508a…b337backed Natus Vincere64c1,402$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.81475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xffc7…2259backed FaZe4c1,350$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545442.6%23 W · 31 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed FaZe40c1,339$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.676245.2%28 W · 34 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6d2…86e7backed FaZe36c1,300$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4682544%11 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere61c1,295$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.117,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed FaZe32c1,290$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.832732.4%106 W · 221 L-0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked FaZe36c1,167$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42032542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Natus Vincere60c1,155$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.8813357.1%76 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Natus Vincere48c1,100$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.0981751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd752…85d4backed FaZe16c1,100$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17336837.5%138 W · 230 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ef2…79f9backed FaZe49c1,068$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.821020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65d2…3d2bbacked FaZe36c1,050$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+92.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Natus Vincere63c1,042$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.5117045.9%78 W · 92 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FaZe33c1,030$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.962,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeae1…65ecbacked FaZe37c1,016$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed FaZe40c1,013$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4051,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78db…a291backed FaZe50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001850%9 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0cc…c8ddbacked FaZe2c1,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249216.3%15 W · 77 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+33.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5903…d02bbacked FaZe50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005230.8%16 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid+18.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed FaZe44c859.43$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.6737440.4%151 W · 223 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac9c…50d8backed FaZe3c840$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2825416.9%43 W · 211 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked FaZe33c826.67$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2721,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked FaZe37c822$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.4119741.6%82 W · 115 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Natus Vincere44c818$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.0819540%78 W · 117 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b14…039bbacked Natus Vincere79c797.47$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.4711871.2%84 W · 34 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbec6…0e3abacked FaZe50c780$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3901546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed FaZe45c773.24$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.9652951.4%272 W · 257 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bd1…1a49backed Natus Vincere65c753.85$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xddad…bce1backed Natus Vincere65c738.46$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.4622252.7%117 W · 105 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Natus Vincere68c738$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.1644648.4%216 W · 230 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…b805backed FaZe53c724.1$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38121947.5%104 W · 115 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked FaZe45c722$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.843,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd00…952dbacked Natus Vincere58c694.22$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.225867.2%39 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf36e…f91cbacked FaZe31c693.03$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.8429839.3%117 W · 181 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked FaZe37c675.68$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25053545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Natus Vincere55c644.89$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.3610133.7%34 W · 67 L-14.2wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-42.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked FaZe2c599.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121522.3%48 W · 167 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-45.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ad…683fbacked FaZe37c594.59$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22035550.1%178 W · 177 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked FaZe44c580.72$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.982,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere55c579.17$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.674,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked FaZe54c549.52$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.4241040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked FaZe37c539.08$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.871,14449.4%565 W · 579 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Natus Vincere51c538.84$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.541850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked FaZe37c521.38$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.9110252%53 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.