Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa052e3e79ea9da902fd0d048fbd995f4413f3c109179ef62d79f6ec3e835857b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- M80of M80, Shopify Rebellion Black
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee8e…0a7bbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 57c | 13,072$7,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,424.12 | 781 | 62%484 W · 297 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…e406backed M80 | 45c | 4,670$2,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,591.07 | 547 | 51.2%280 W · 267 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked M80 | 45c | 4,638$2,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,556.99 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 53c | 3,844$2,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,026.43 | 521 | 55.5%289 W · 232 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked M80 | 44c | 2,698$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,501.83 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed M80 | 44c | 1,872$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.07 | 1,276 | 32.1%409 W · 867 L | -67.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde8f…2c72backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 55c | 1,131$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked M80 | 40c | 1,018$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.93 | 240 | 32.1%77 W · 163 L | -18.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…23e4backed M80 | 34c | 953.28$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.83 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8227…0bccbacked M80 | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 55c | 492.94$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.11 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed M80 | 47c | 410.73$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.51 | 174 | 48.3%84 W · 90 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…3fa0backed M80 | 52c | 399.99$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed M80 | 44c | 386.23$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.29 | 517 | 49.5%256 W · 261 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked M80 | 44c | 320.63$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.23 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed M80 | 44c | 319$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.62 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked M80 | 46c | 314.19$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.24 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked M80 | 43c | 271.76$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.73 | 168 | 42.3%71 W · 97 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed M80 | 43c | 230$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.17 | 664 | 38.1%253 W · 411 L | -31.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked M80 | 44c | 221.2$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.87 | 1,376 | 47.1%648 W · 728 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 47c | 199.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 224 | 49.1%110 W · 114 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1afd…427ebacked M80 | 50c | 198.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.41 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed M80 | 42c | 180$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.3 | 305 | 44.3%135 W · 170 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…0511backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 56c | 177.43$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ef…4a40backed M80 | 53c | 170$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…cbaebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 57c | 137.81$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…49bbbacked M80 | 45c | 106.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked M80 | 35c | 81.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 450 | 33.8%152 W · 298 L | -35.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c5…da68backed M80 | 45c | 71.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee6…07cabacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 56c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 151 | 60.3%91 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ff…2199backed M80 | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf768…7831backed M80 | 54c | 54.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed M80 | 39c | 49.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 48c | 41.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 575 | 17.7%102 W · 473 L | -71.7wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 48c | 30.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 322 | 61.5%198 W · 124 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b58…3474backed M80 | 53c | 28.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked M80 | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +12.2wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb92f…58c4backed M80 | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed M80 | 59c | 18.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 PlayoffsM80 won
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 WinnerM80 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.