Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x773b97484b0b45b82dd85d9e27455eab1974a17375ec76859b4029ad0000ff08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- M80of M80, Shopify Rebellion Black
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed M80 | 52c | 1,806$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.22 | 521 | 55.5%289 W · 232 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…3d79backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 33c | 811.45$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.95 | 224 | 49.1%110 W · 114 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…23e4backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 47c | 716.02$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.53 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed M80 | 51c | 500.57$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.68 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked M80 | 59c | 428.83$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.45 | 240 | 32.1%77 W · 163 L | -18.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 50c | 414.29$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.96 | 1,376 | 47.1%648 W · 728 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…3fa0backed M80 | 51c | 406.31$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.09 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…afaebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 49c | 387.94$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.09 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked M80 | 66c | 381.8$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.36 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…eef4backed M80 | 53c | 285$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.95 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked M80 | 55c | 275.62$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.78 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked M80 | 72c | 229.11$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…244ebacked M80 | 46c | 195.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.65 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…49bbbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 27c | 151.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 50c | 119.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 450 | 33.8%152 W · 298 L | -35.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 50c | 119.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 1,309 | 43.8%573 W · 736 L | -44.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 29c | 115$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 264 | 36%95 W · 169 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 52c | 110.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 544 | 39.9%217 W · 327 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 47c | 80.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 407 | 31.7%129 W · 278 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 55c | 58.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed M80 | 50c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcd…5ef7backed M80 | 50c | 40.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1445…614abacked M80 | 66c | 38.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…1761backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 35c | 37.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +12.2wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 211 | 53.6%113 W · 98 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 PlayoffsM80 won
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 WinnerM80 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.