Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Little Rock Trojans vs. Lindenwood Lions
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x939b35d0bf426a1754f52fa552b9f250cd9a9e79b4fd66c4ecb0253afc77431b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lindenwood Lionsof Little Rock Trojans, Lindenwood Lions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,467 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Little Rock Trojans | 35c | 19,610$6,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,863.61 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Lindenwood Lions | 65c | 13,176$8,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,613.82 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb729…4e2ebacked Little Rock Trojans | 38c | 11,635$4,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,462.77 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Little Rock Trojans | 17c | 8,711$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.24 | 493 | 45.4%224 W · 269 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Lindenwood Lions | 73c | 8,049$5,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,147.91 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Lindenwood Lions | 66c | 6,679$4,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280.43 | 318 | 37.7%120 W · 198 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Lindenwood Lions | 64c | 6,052$3,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,185.48 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Little Rock Trojans | 38c | 5,555$2,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,122.01 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Little Rock Trojans | 37c | 3,425$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.9 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Lindenwood Lions | 65c | 3,400$2,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Little Rock Trojans | 35c | 2,307$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.59 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Lindenwood Lions | 59c | 2,222$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.03 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Little Rock Trojans | 8c | 1,648$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.28 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Lindenwood Lions | 61c | 1,501$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.57 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Little Rock Trojans | 40c | 1,500$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605 | 555 | 32.8%182 W · 373 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Lindenwood Lions | 60c | 1,491$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.55 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…1d79backed Little Rock Trojans | 21c | 1,400$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.24 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Lindenwood Lions | 80c | 1,250$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.95 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Lindenwood Lions | 66c | 1,203$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.88 | 274 | 50%137 W · 137 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Lindenwood Lions | 66c | 1,198$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.35 | 407 | 55.8%227 W · 180 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…85a9backed Lindenwood Lions | 65c | 1,194$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.04 | 117 | 47.9%56 W · 61 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…3f7fbacked Little Rock Trojans | 3c | 1,090$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Lindenwood Lions | 56c | 745.62$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.07 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Little Rock Trojans | 27c | 657.97$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.24 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Little Rock Trojans | 36c | 529.44$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.77 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Little Rock Trojans | 35c | 488$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.8 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Lindenwood Lions | 64c | 480.35$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.77 | 347 | 46.1%160 W · 187 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lindenwood Lions | 59c | 465.01$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.66 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Lindenwood Lions | 65c | 457.86$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.25 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Lindenwood Lions | 64c | 455.19$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.87 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lindenwood Lions | 60c | 444.1$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.64 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Little Rock Trojans | 8c | 440.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Little Rock Trojans | 40c | 414.48$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.54 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Little Rock Trojans | 35c | 403.4$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.19 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Lindenwood Lions | 59c | 399.59$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.83 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Lindenwood Lions | 69c | 335.76$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.61 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…189dbacked Lindenwood Lions | 65c | 305.24$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.83 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Lindenwood Lions | 65c | 297.61$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Little Rock Trojans | 10c | 280.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 934 | 47.9%447 W · 487 L | -19.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Little Rock Trojans | 11c | 277.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…87b5backed Little Rock Trojans | 26c | 243.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 140 | 27.1%38 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…4386backed Little Rock Trojans | 21c | 232.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Lindenwood Lions | 65c | 228.93$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.13 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe81b…ae69backed Little Rock Trojans | 44c | 225.31$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Little Rock Trojans | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Little Rock Trojans | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Little Rock Trojans | 43c | 199.13$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9385…2484backed Lindenwood Lions | 67c | 162.91$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Lindenwood Lions | 66c | 150.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Little Rock Trojans | 40c | 139.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 208 | 34.6%72 W · 136 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Lindenwood Lions | 78c | 137.07$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 170 | 62.9%107 W · 63 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ba…fc31backed Little Rock Trojans | 25c | 128.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Little Rock Trojans | 59c | 124.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Lindenwood Lions | 44c | 100.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 358 | 52%186 W · 172 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Lindenwood Lions | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 932 | 47.3%441 W · 491 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe389…02b9backed Little Rock Trojans | 27c | 96.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…cf85backed Little Rock Trojans | 40c | 95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 219 | 37.4%82 W · 137 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Lindenwood Lions | 77c | 90.36$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Little Rock Trojans | 23c | 78.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Little Rock Trojans | 44c | 68.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Lindenwood Lions | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +10.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Little Rock Trojans | 36c | 49.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d75…12a6backed Lindenwood Lions | 66c | 47.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Little Rock Trojans | 36c | 47.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4287…3d5ebacked Little Rock Trojans | 32c | 46.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Lindenwood Lions | 65c | 44.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Lindenwood Lions | 65c | 38.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…afbcbacked Little Rock Trojans | 35c | 34.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 703 | 49.6%349 W · 354 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Lindenwood Lions | 59c | 32.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 216 | 46.8%101 W · 115 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Lindenwood Lions | 65c | 30.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…e36ebacked Lindenwood Lions | 38c | 29.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Lindenwood Lions | 65c | 22.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f9…0975backed Little Rock Trojans | 58c | 20.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10b…2f6dbacked Lindenwood Lions | 60c | 19.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd3…bd7fbacked Lindenwood Lions | 65c | 19.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1213…5ed6backed Lindenwood Lions | 65c | 16.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Little Rock Trojans vs. Lindenwood Lionsthis page
- Spread: Lindenwood Lions (-2.5)Lindenwood Lions won
- Spread: Lindenwood Lions (-3.5)Lindenwood Lions won
- Spread: Lindenwood Lions (-4.5)Lindenwood Lions won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.