TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Central Arkansas Bears vs. Austin Peay Governors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Central Arkansas Bearsof Central Arkansas Bears, Austin Peay Governors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,730
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$54,799

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,730 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6814…a9e7backed Austin Peay Governors24c3,365$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.43,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Central Arkansas Bears50c3,201$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,611.123046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Austin Peay Governors33c2,827$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.722,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Austin Peay Governors49c980.26$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.332,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Austin Peay Governors65c816.74$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.8821646.8%101 W · 115 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Central Arkansas Bears26c656.92$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.661,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7525…0ec1backed Austin Peay Governors8c652.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.81118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-49.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Austin Peay Governors52c615.99$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.41,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Central Arkansas Bears18c485.69$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.354,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Austin Peay Governors62c429.24$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.21,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e40…cf85backed Central Arkansas Bears35c411.66$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.5821937.4%82 W · 137 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Austin Peay Governors39c356.66$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.575,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Central Arkansas Bears34c332.25$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.2677142.3%326 W · 445 L+2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Central Arkansas Bears36c298.37$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.822,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Central Arkansas Bears43c294.19$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.9557655%317 W · 259 L+17.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Austin Peay Governors52c254.76$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.4715356.2%86 W · 67 L+14.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+27.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Austin Peay Governors65c233.13$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5393447.9%447 W · 487 L-19.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05c3…3f7fbacked Austin Peay Governors7c226.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.97214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-73.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Austin Peay Governors78c200$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1566246.8%29 W · 33 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Central Arkansas Bears35c200$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.6655532.8%182 W · 373 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Central Arkansas Bears39c199.99$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.991,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfcd…3b61backed Austin Peay Governors54c198.26$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.061926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Austin Peay Governors64c172.4$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.342,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Austin Peay Governors61c162.57$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1735646.6%166 W · 190 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Austin Peay Governors65c160.29$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.191,23147%578 W · 653 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Austin Peay Governors66c150.33$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.211,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Austin Peay Governors62c146.77$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.271,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Austin Peay Governors58c130.11$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.991,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed Austin Peay Governors78c128.19$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3917062.9%107 W · 63 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Central Arkansas Bears34c121.2$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.581,44643.4%627 W · 819 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Central Arkansas Bears21c118$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.811,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Central Arkansas Bears43c104$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2842934.3%147 W · 282 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb747…3f1bbacked Austin Peay Governors65c99.6$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.742832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Central Arkansas Bears58c97.04$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.761,00355.3%555 W · 448 L+46.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd72…7018backed Central Arkansas Bears23c93.61$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.752100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+216.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc990…80bbbacked Central Arkansas Bears38c91.53$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.823135.5%11 W · 20 L-5.6wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-37.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Austin Peay Governors51c90.79$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3139742.8%170 W · 227 L-15.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Austin Peay Governors67c81.46$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5762140.4%251 W · 370 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Central Arkansas Bears13c81.22$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.0270936.1%256 W · 453 L-27.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Austin Peay Governors66c75.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6183350.2%418 W · 415 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fc5…d36ebacked Austin Peay Governors63c67.7$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6510043%43 W · 57 L-9.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-21.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Austin Peay Governors50c52$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0484854.5%462 W · 386 L+32.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Austin Peay Governors63c49.59$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2485248.8%416 W · 436 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Central Arkansas Bears24c46.7$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.461,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc1b5…2e74backed Central Arkansas Bears37c38.7$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5619860.1%119 W · 79 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Austin Peay Governors65c37.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3781528.8%235 W · 580 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Austin Peay Governors64c32.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.744,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf395…ac0abacked Central Arkansas Bears55c26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.735650.8%181 W · 175 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc72e…656dbacked Austin Peay Governors79c25.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.881866.7%12 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7253…9190backed Austin Peay Governors65c15.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.325844.8%26 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.