Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Howard Bison vs. Norfolk State Spartans
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe30631e0c922f227931b57059f9f2c643ff128fdfbefba668e68c1c3a5e022fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Howard Bisonof Howard Bison, Norfolk State Spartans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,124 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Norfolk State Spartans | 15c | 11,995$1,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,836.33 | 1,074 | 43.3%465 W · 609 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Howard Bison | 63c | 11,800$7,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,361.21 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Norfolk State Spartans | 31c | 9,220$2,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,858.13 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…8276backed Norfolk State Spartans | 45c | 7,594$3,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,407.94 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Norfolk State Spartans | 26c | 7,513$1,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,918.26 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…d2f5backed Howard Bison | 69c | 5,955$4,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.08 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Norfolk State Spartans | 27c | 4,842$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.52 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Howard Bison | 62c | 2,583$1,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.89 | 1,058 | 55.8%590 W · 468 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Norfolk State Spartans | 16c | 1,838$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.8 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Norfolk State Spartans | 32c | 1,669$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.71 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf606…440abacked Howard Bison | 70c | 1,544$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.61 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Norfolk State Spartans | 12c | 1,277$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.08 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Norfolk State Spartans | 31c | 1,252$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.02 | 555 | 32.8%182 W · 373 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Norfolk State Spartans | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Howard Bison | 69c | 722.55$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.99 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Norfolk State Spartans | 13c | 638$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Howard Bison | 66c | 552.79$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.08 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Howard Bison | 69c | 440.68$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.61 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Howard Bison | 68c | 432.31$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.34 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Howard Bison | 69c | 431.53$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.77 | 347 | 46.1%160 W · 187 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Howard Bison | 69c | 428.65$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.88 | 274 | 50%137 W · 137 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…85a9backed Howard Bison | 69c | 424.8$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.69 | 117 | 47.9%56 W · 61 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Howard Bison | 69c | 422.31$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.92 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Howard Bison | 69c | 411.89$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.69 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…3f7fbacked Norfolk State Spartans | 5c | 399.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Norfolk State Spartans | 15c | 354.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 253 | 37.5%95 W · 158 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Norfolk State Spartans | 26c | 325.43$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.58 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Norfolk State Spartans | 33c | 301.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92d…e560backed Howard Bison | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Howard Bison | 65c | 268.49$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.32 | 771 | 42.3%326 W · 445 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Norfolk State Spartans | 36c | 262.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Norfolk State Spartans | 32c | 249.49$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 932 | 47.3%441 W · 491 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Howard Bison | 69c | 244.53$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 308 | 53.2%164 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Norfolk State Spartans | 12c | 201.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Norfolk State Spartans | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Norfolk State Spartans | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Howard Bison | 55c | 198.27$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Howard Bison | 68c | 194.78$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 229 | 50.7%116 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Norfolk State Spartans | 20c | 188.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Howard Bison | 68c | 156.08$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0016backed Norfolk State Spartans | 33c | 155$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Norfolk State Spartans | 31c | 154.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Howard Bison | 64c | 149.2$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 397 | 42.8%170 W · 227 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…afbcbacked Howard Bison | 65c | 147.94$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 703 | 49.6%349 W · 354 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4e…2ec7backed Norfolk State Spartans | 35c | 138.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Norfolk State Spartans | 29c | 136.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Norfolk State Spartans | 18c | 134.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 334 | 45.5%152 W · 182 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Howard Bison | 63c | 116.36$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 934 | 47.9%447 W · 487 L | -19.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Howard Bison | 69c | 115.07$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 155 | 59.4%92 W · 63 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Howard Bison | 69c | 104.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Norfolk State Spartans | 32c | 99.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 167 | 21%35 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…f6c3backed Howard Bison | 56c | 97.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Norfolk State Spartans | 15c | 95.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1,003 | 55.3%555 W · 448 L | +46.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Norfolk State Spartans | 32c | 77.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…fb12backed Norfolk State Spartans | 30c | 63.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Norfolk State Spartans | 28c | 63.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8d51…7317backed Norfolk State Spartans | 32c | 61.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Norfolk State Spartans | 28c | 60.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c3…9792backed Norfolk State Spartans | 37c | 58.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 270 | 55.6%150 W · 120 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c21…12bdbacked Norfolk State Spartans | 32c | 55.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Howard Bison | 69c | 50.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Norfolk State Spartans | 31c | 50.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 430 | 53.3%229 W · 201 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…750abacked Norfolk State Spartans | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Norfolk State Spartans | 34c | 49.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +10.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…b137backed Howard Bison | 70c | 44.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Howard Bison | 69c | 40.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Howard Bison | 68c | 36.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…84b0backed Norfolk State Spartans | 42c | 35.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 299 | 54.2%162 W · 137 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c1…7fbebacked Norfolk State Spartans | 43c | 34.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 152 | 40.1%61 W · 91 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Howard Bison | 67c | 33.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…8a3cbacked Howard Bison | 70c | 32.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…cb95backed Norfolk State Spartans | 38c | 29.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Howard Bison | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked Howard Bison | 66c | 24.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.7wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…7a77backed Howard Bison | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 523 | 53.5%280 W · 243 L | -17.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef7…5af1backed Howard Bison | 58c | 18.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Howard Bison | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 330 | 58.2%192 W · 138 L | +24.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Howard Bison vs. Norfolk State Spartansthis page
- Howard Bison vs. Norfolk State Spartans: O/U 146.5Over won
- Howard Bison vs. Norfolk State Spartans: O/U 148.5Over won
- Spread: Howard Bison (-5.5)Howard Bison won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.