TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-03-07?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$900,942

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $900,942 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x54ac…7c14backed No52c647,768$337,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310,468.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5f9…87b0backed Yes50c330,000$163,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163,4009649%47 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Yes47c176,283$83,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83,727.955250%26 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed Yes46c92,593$42,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,592.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes47c83,363$38,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,919.353,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked No50c56,091$28,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,045.41752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes48c48,626$23,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,497.1725149%123 W · 128 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes47c26,534$12,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,364.112451.6%64 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes46c25,923$12,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,048.4647748.2%230 W · 247 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c21…9b8abacked No50c19,754$9,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,877250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes47c19,058$9,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,049.0821547.9%103 W · 112 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes49c16,599$8,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,111.21,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51cd…eecdbacked Yes0c12,330$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Yes48c7,000$3,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,359.982751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe56d…2b65backed No50c6,920$3,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,460250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes47c5,724$2,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,716.7677751.7%402 W · 375 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf75…d56abacked No50c4,694$2,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,347250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked No50c3,600$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+70.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed No52c2,885$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,384.621485.7%12 W · 2 L+4.2wins+0.30per pick56cpaid+50.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Yes48c2,500$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2005147.1%24 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Yes48c2,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.8413347.4%63 W · 70 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…d83abacked Yes46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9604035%14 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Yes48c1,400$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6654843.8%21 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No50c1,232$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61623643.6%103 W · 133 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes45c1,190$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.94837.5%18 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes7c1,101$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Yes46c888.97$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.934252.4%22 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes51c832.24$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.449151.6%47 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Yes47c817.51$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.859740.2%39 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes47c787.61$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.3813950.4%70 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Yes47c773.63$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.867150.7%36 W · 35 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed No49c734$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.34862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked Yes48c700$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.39per pick56cpaid-76.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x587b…2622backed No70c634$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.4129370.3%206 W · 87 L+41.2wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+30.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Yes52c599.99$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31226050.4%131 W · 129 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes46c535.05$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.727334.2%25 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a6…afa6backed Yes47c531.91$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+24.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc194…f69fbacked Yes51c498.81$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.98560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed No51c454.52$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.822147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes30c413$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.992346.6%430 W · 493 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Yes49c408$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.929652.1%50 W · 46 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed Yes52c268$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.363528.6%10 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick35cpaid+22.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9952…ceb2backed Yes47c264.55$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.532356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…45a8backed No47c254.74$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf69f…227ebacked Yes54c246.31$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07fe…4d66backed Yes42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001625%4 W · 12 L-4.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-49%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9055…12cebacked Yes45c220$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+43.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Yes46c216.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.522646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Yes49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006142.6%26 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x401d…23c6backed Yes49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+35.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x371e…0f81backed Yes49c201.92$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.94475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112330.4%7 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+316.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1004641.3%19 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed Yes47c193.28$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.82142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4447…cc47backed Yes54c188.69$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005451.9%28 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d20…5b7abacked No47c180.26$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Yes48c176.27$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.611947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Yes48c176.25$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.44259.5%25 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2482…a721backed Yes46c161.14$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.29540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked No49c149.99$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.8730735.2%108 W · 199 L-32.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-34.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Yes49c135.44$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.865251.9%27 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b47…50fdbacked No52c134.62$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Yes46c134.36$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.812931%9 W · 20 L-7.7wins-0.26per pick57cpaid-46.4%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x670b…2c75backed Yes48c124.19$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a38…d420backed No50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Yes46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505232.7%17 W · 35 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-23.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+45%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes53c100.01$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5353046.4%246 W · 284 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304445.5%20 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ba…f30dbacked No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Yes48c96$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.082462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+31.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xea1c…b810backed Yes52c91$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddbd…e738backed No51c91$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes25c90.75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5519847.5%94 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Yes48c83.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a2…875ebacked No48c81.83$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x043c…595fbacked Yes46c76.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked No50c75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.510754.2%58 W · 49 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b2b…1477backed Yes49c71.84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf986…6833backed Yes48c71.77$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.761442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7ea…066ebacked Yes46c70$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Yes49c68.55$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.59966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Yes48c66.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1354949%269 W · 280 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4437…a474backed Yes46c64.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8405…2163backed Yes53c64.15$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343426.5%9 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Yes46c60.87$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2816744.3%74 W · 93 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No50c60.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1580358%466 W · 337 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes46c58$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6837138.8%144 W · 227 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eec…89babacked No51c57.37$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.37475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+44%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca38…b6d0backed Yes46c54.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d8e…3d55backed Yes46c54.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x835c…8e3bbacked Yes46c54.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked No80c53.75$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7519073.7%140 W · 50 L+18.6wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+22.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes54c52.56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3815341.2%63 W · 90 L-14.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-24%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes50c52.16$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.082161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Yes50c48.78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.395850%29 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5db0…a3b6backed No62c47.19$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.932100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.