Mls · resolved market
Will Philadelphia Union vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c07064f6fcb7b8923b7a1e82da39f59aa7008a3fbc360de998a1bce330efbe6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,139 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 18c | 2,368$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.88 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 1,689$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.68 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 73c | 1,500$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.53 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,250$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.5 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa4…a2b9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 26c | 535.05$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.81 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 506.14$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.66 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 8c | 470$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa34…523abacked Yes | 25c | 347.78$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 77c | 317.62$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Yes | 8c | 204$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 75c | 134.19$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed17…ab79backed No | 77c | 122.63$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 120.9$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc329…067ebacked No | 77c | 115.58$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x190d…7516backed No | 77c | 109.57$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 72c | 69.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 25c | 67.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 60.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 24c | 55.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 72c | 50.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 22c | 48.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 41.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…4f2dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 63c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 73c | 22.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Philadelphia Union vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw?this page
- Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-03-07?No won
- Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-03-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.