TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

Marlins vs. Nationals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nationalsof Marlins, Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$103,533
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$106,493

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,533 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Nationals50c21,513$10,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,756.2938043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals56c10,724$6,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,706.862,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Marlins50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00019649.5%97 W · 99 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x081c…f010backed Nationals52c7,070$3,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,393.387659.2%45 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Marlins50c5,394$2,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,69735952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Marlins45c5,023$2,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,247.151,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f8…3a79backed Marlins46c4,287$1,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,950.791735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0c4…6f2fbacked Marlins53c3,808$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001533.3%5 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-47.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Marlins42c3,355$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.4478445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Marlins49c3,147$1,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,546.5139041%160 W · 230 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Marlins48c3,046$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.934550.7%175 W · 170 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa983…46a3backed Nationals69c2,860$1,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.2911345.1%51 W · 62 L-16.4wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-28.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2055…aee1backed Nationals53c2,800$1,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,316650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc623…9afdbacked Marlins50c2,600$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30013553.3%72 W · 63 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Nationals50c2,514$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.7843949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3595…834dbacked Nationals53c2,254$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+40.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a6b…8b2fbacked Marlins51c1,849$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.76475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+48.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Marlins50c1,800$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90053448.9%261 W · 273 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80a3…10c6backed Nationals54c1,731$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.26666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12c6…e328backed Marlins51c1,657$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.87425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Nationals51c1,630$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.71,92253.4%1,027 W · 895 L+28.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9dd…ed49backed Marlins47c1,600$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75250%0 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1a9f…23f5backed Marlins46c1,391$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.86650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5da7…9368backed Marlins47c1,340$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.8425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b37…263bbacked Marlins47c1,200$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56440%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8e89…e67abacked Marlins47c1,064$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.08785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.38per pick47cpaid+86.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd319…b3f9backed Nationals53c1,062$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.14966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e78…a38cbacked Nationals53c1,038$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.86850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2cd…d0b5backed Marlins47c1,036$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.9270%0 W · 7 L-3.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Marlins48c999.98$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.9983248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedba…3279backed Nationals49c980$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-49%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6979…d7a2backed Nationals51c975.69$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.622661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+21.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c3c…5c56backed Nationals51c934.68$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.992934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-34.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f35…0d0cbacked Marlins47c914$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.5830%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Marlins48c835$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.157744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Nationals52c786.05$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.31,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Nationals52c772$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.561,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Marlins49c713.32$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.9470946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Marlins33c683.03$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.018530.6%26 W · 59 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-27.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x07ae…a897backed Nationals49c677$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.27650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Nationals58c655.11$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.894,18750.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L+94.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Marlins48c625$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Marlins42c556.03$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.881,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb091…2017backed Marlins50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25031254.5%170 W · 142 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60e6…9e8abacked Nationals50c499.99$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.9932651.5%168 W · 158 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6082…6ce2backed Nationals50c498$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24918148.6%88 W · 93 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae09…fa6dbacked Nationals51c471.98$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.277549.3%37 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2719…28ddbacked Nationals80c459.96$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.6325364.4%163 W · 90 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Marlins40c458.94$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.828,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x40ab…fbb5backed Nationals51c436.1$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.6916654.8%91 W · 75 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Marlins50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20051953.2%276 W · 243 L-24.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Marlins50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,20348.5%584 W · 619 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Marlins46c399.98$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.993,30346.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L+22.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Marlins20c380$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.731,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Marlins23c380$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.147745.7%218 W · 259 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Nationals51c365$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.6273149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5be6…8506backed Marlins46c340$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f5…fe12backed Marlins15c333$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.951735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Marlins21c332.86$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.881,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdede…149ebacked Marlins49c318.9$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.3633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-49.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Marlins43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1291,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Marlins50c275$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.518749.2%92 W · 95 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Marlins44c271.83$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6151151.7%264 W · 247 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Marlins40c258.6$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.315033.3%50 W · 100 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked Nationals50c257.97$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.343948.7%19 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c76…ded5backed Marlins16c249.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+43%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13ac…2c1abacked Nationals54c223.06$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.062065%13 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Marlins49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Nationals50c200.49$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.4830151.5%155 W · 146 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Marlins48c200$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9556440.4%228 W · 336 L-16.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffc3…8fffbacked Marlins50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e08…bebfbacked Marlins58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Nationals51c200$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.331,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1126…4e82backed Nationals78c192.92$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1760052.2%313 W · 287 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36da…aa79backed Nationals54c191.3$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+55%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x344d…1278backed Nationals54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.193959%23 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…0bbfbacked Marlins50c182.42$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.21825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-55.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Nationals52c164.9$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.151,05550.3%531 W · 524 L-10.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81d6…bec9backed Marlins51c157.06$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806149.2%30 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Nationals70c139.38$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.171,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf647…7911backed Marlins16c127.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201850%9 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bca…16bfbacked Nationals54c127.69$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.19666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x346d…aa71backed Nationals47c127.5$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.57785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.36per pick49cpaid+73.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x937d…ff94backed Nationals47c127.5$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.57650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x40a3…6ed8backed Marlins48c126.65$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.792937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…c57abacked Nationals80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b4a…4e2dbacked Marlins50c121.8$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.910527.6%29 W · 76 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f2d…e348backed Marlins37c120$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.118159.1%107 W · 74 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nationals50c116.33$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.052,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e4d…67a5backed Marlins44c112.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9112352.8%65 W · 58 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Nationals50c111.2$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.651334.5%177 W · 336 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc655…8467backed Marlins49c111$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3924351.4%125 W · 118 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e9c…95a1backed Marlins48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040144.1%177 W · 224 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Nationals66c101.21$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6370841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Marlins26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2645732.2%147 W · 310 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d28…932abacked Marlins50c99.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.825548.6%124 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7b6…cfe5backed Marlins48c89.58$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432040%8 W · 12 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-32.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Marlins50c87$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.52,05053.8%1,103 W · 947 L+33.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nationals51c75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7512,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9376…1655backed Marlins50c70.54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2720649.5%102 W · 104 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.