TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Nationals vs. Padres

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nationalsof Nationals, Padres
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$231,841
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$280,624

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,841 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x24df…e8b2backed Padres37c15,246$5,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,686.611,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9708…925bbacked Padres62c13,513$8,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,377.9416643.4%72 W · 94 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Padres7c10,977$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.3997950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe768…9d43backed Padres7c10,565$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.5219650.5%99 W · 97 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2696…bec8backed Padres61c9,998$6,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,098.7820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe487…af15backed Nationals39c9,998$3,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,098.782100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+117.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Padres6c8,737$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.941,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Padres28c7,972$2,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,241.232,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Nationals38c7,000$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,34069249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4207…0d4ebacked Nationals38c5,428$2,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,365.59450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Padres25c4,988$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2461,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Nationals37c4,310$1,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,715.320850%104 W · 104 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Padres12c4,149$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.69,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Nationals37c3,827$1,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,411.117351.4%89 W · 84 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Nationals37c3,626$1,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,284.3838047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Padres12c3,360$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.2845248.2%218 W · 234 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Padres63c2,857$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8002,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15e0…8d86backed Nationals37c2,694$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,697.2511153.2%59 W · 52 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Padres61c2,564$1,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,564.1132852.4%172 W · 156 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc3b…f625backed Padres5c2,271$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.97935.4%28 W · 51 L+6.9wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+63.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed Nationals40c2,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2001250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bc…e520backed Nationals39c2,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,22027953.4%149 W · 130 L+16.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2373…ddfabacked Nationals37c2,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,26037446.8%175 W · 199 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Nationals37c2,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.9715944%70 W · 89 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Nationals39c1,615$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.151,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03cd…9fdabacked Padres61c1,555$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.5531346.6%146 W · 167 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Padres1c1,497$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.495053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Padres60c1,489$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.581,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Padres22c1,374$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30432832.3%106 W · 222 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa365…d26ebacked Padres69c1,324$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.7614052.9%74 W · 66 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Padres1c1,315$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.34754.4%21 W · 454 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-72.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d6f…482cbacked Padres61c1,304$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.066553.8%35 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f19…b0cabacked Padres1c1,197$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9446631.1%145 W · 321 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f5…fe12backed Padres9c1,096$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.61735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Padres3c1,084$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.128762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Padres20c1,059$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.8919348.7%94 W · 99 L+15.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+16%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Padres7c1,009$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7566645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Nationals38c999.93$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.9693240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fb2…01b4backed Padres63c984.13$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6205856.9%33 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab0…d582backed Nationals38c959.41$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.843743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd59…c3a5backed Padres63c952.38$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60013450%67 W · 67 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b6f…3838backed Padres19c906.13$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.6340547.4%192 W · 213 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Padres57c892.1$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.1588549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Nationals39c875.8$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.591,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Nationals37c841.86$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.371,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Padres20c799.23$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.8954941%225 W · 324 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d1e…effebacked Padres68c762.12$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.24425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-62.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Padres27c747.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-33.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6103…7a65backed Padres63c679.37$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4281872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Padres9c642.81$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.757841%32 W · 46 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Nationals69c600.74$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.5496133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d16…029ebacked Nationals71c587.22$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.292250%11 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Padres14c508$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1365549.3%323 W · 332 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40b3…6159backed Padres62c482.26$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2994374.4%32 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Padres44c448.61$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19852542.5%223 W · 302 L+2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Padres3c430.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.981,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6407…7d12backed Padres62c403.23$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25018247.8%87 W · 95 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Nationals38c386$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.3226355.5%146 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Padres62c383.08$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.3986751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Nationals38c376.32$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.3223938.5%92 W · 147 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x754d…d51dbacked Padres24c368.57$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.741118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x95ec…4b7ebacked Padres38c347.35$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13338743.2%167 W · 220 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x705a…1678backed Padres65c347.11$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.62771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+38.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Padres42c333$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.632,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2313…3ee6backed Padres16c307.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505145.1%23 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Padres62c300$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18618649.5%92 W · 94 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Nationals39c299.97$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.981,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Nationals38c283.96$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.0644443%191 W · 253 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Nationals36c262.14$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.8431145.7%142 W · 169 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Nationals39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.4156351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe3b…f9bdbacked Padres62c255.71$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88cf…7d31backed Padres21c250$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.519849.5%98 W · 100 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3587…23adbacked Padres47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007244.4%32 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Padres61c203.99$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4517155%94 W · 77 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb22a…7166backed Nationals37c202.7$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.7450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Nationals39c200.29$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.262,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Padres63c200$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12692754.9%509 W · 418 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Padres9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1838249.5%189 W · 193 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Padres60c198.25$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9598149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Padres59c195.41$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.293,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x796d…555fbacked Nationals37c189.19$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.192100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+157.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1031…e7a0backed Padres28c179.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1ca…6810backed Nationals37c178.37$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.37560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8290…7fa3backed Padres63c163.21$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.821668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa264…e26abacked Padres62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010041%41 W · 59 L-9.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x77c7…2c25backed Padres62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-26.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6edc…18cebacked Padres62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031356.2%176 W · 137 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9183…a1a1backed Padres63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-57.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9fa0…eeb9backed Nationals37c156.77$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+46.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Nationals38c155$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.117239.5%68 W · 104 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05a4…1e85backed Nationals55c151.06$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.3580680%645 W · 161 L+173.6wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x56e6…45e9backed Padres62c150$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9314654.8%80 W · 66 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-10.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9ce…07f7backed Nationals37c148.64$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.64450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Padres9c142.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.791560%9 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Nationals37c141.14$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.928454.8%46 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Padres17c135.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Nationals38c131$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.221,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa69e…848bbacked Nationals37c129.73$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+56.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad9e…ca58backed Nationals39c121.15$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.93551.4%18 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe63c…92b8backed Padres63c120.63$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.99425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-53.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.