NFL · resolved market
Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted top 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94bb28c6d7cf5eb9827d463fc256138293c4ae7fbd8ca5aa88599ebb291afb2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 68c | 735.66$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.25 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cd…3384backed Yes | 67c | 700$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…cd26backed No | 33c | 500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 34c | 404.55$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03c…c427backed No | 35c | 255$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 31c | 219.68$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.76 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 48c | 210.12$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401a…d730backed No | 51c | 180$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…6ff8backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…e52fbacked Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…5e5ebacked No | 33c | 110$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef15…1130backed No | 50c | 105.05$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2894…c2f7backed Yes | 70c | 103$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…b4fcbacked No | 45c | 102.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe266…add3backed Yes | 72c | 98.52$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 66c | 95.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bf…8e48backed No | 33c | 90$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…46b6backed No | 30c | 63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed No | 39c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea6…674dbacked Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 30c | 57.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf23b…bee0backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a14…f397backed Yes | 71c | 35.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 67c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…9d9bbacked No | 63c | 31.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e9…3166backed No | 35c | 29.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 67c | 18.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.