College Football · resolved market
Will Georgia make the CFP National Championship Game?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9961ede552d2d4f7486db54eb46875e27b59598b5a3f4bb6884195c4f5779a21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked No | 65c | 22,105$14,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,647.17 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef3…c555backed Yes | 35c | 21,218$7,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,446.99 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 67c | 4,168$2,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.24 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 37c | 2,970$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…26e8backed Yes | 36c | 1,304$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…57edbacked No | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55f4…959cbacked Yes | 30c | 897.13$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.97 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 9c | 571.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 32c | 544.36$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.2 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes | 33c | 489.86$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 30c | 408$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -70%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 7c | 343.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +743.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…d12ebacked Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 26c | 204$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Yes | 5c | 201$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480f…0905backed Yes | 23c | 167$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 8c | 145.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Yes | 35c | 142$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…a5b6backed Yes | 38c | 131.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc21f…c1f3backed Yes | 35c | 105$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6488…3049backed No | 63c | 21.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9e…f657backed No | 65c | 20.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989d…03c0backed No | 65c | 17.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Georgia make the CFP National Championship Game?this page
- Will Arizona State make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Boise State make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Indiana make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Notre Dame make the CFP National Championship Game?Yes won
- Will Ohio State make the CFP National Championship Game?Yes won
- Will Oregon make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Penn State make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Tennessee make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Texas make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.