College Football · resolved market
Will Arizona State make the CFP National Championship Game?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x535d77d17a5596352b784385032dca438a9155f7ce06b5aa2728181a3c35afe0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,348$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 39 | 0%0 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked Yes | 3c | 1,493$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 726.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd76…24d3backed Yes | 4c | 636$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 4c | 622.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa394…4742backed Yes | 4c | 540$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9457backed Yes | 4c | 540$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x372a…22d9backed Yes | 4c | 492$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…c80bbacked Yes | 4c | 480$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9250…fd1fbacked Yes | 4c | 480$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…7feabacked Yes | 4c | 468$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x069a…aa55backed Yes | 4c | 456$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…ef10backed Yes | 4c | 420$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…abc9backed Yes | 4c | 396$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd464…db84backed Yes | 4c | 384$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb44…967fbacked Yes | 4c | 372$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…e40dbacked Yes | 4c | 372$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…0e37backed Yes | 4c | 372$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…5779backed Yes | 3c | 361$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6f…dda9backed Yes | 4c | 336$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…ab8bbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e6…3785backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…5316backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e4…f086backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50da…ba13backed Yes | 4c | 288$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…3e0cbacked Yes | 4c | 288$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…60f9backed Yes | 4c | 288$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4c…23f2backed Yes | 4c | 288$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9769…3eccbacked Yes | 4c | 276$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…b6fdbacked Yes | 4c | 264$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2708…05febacked Yes | 4c | 264$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507b…0835backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arizona State make the CFP National Championship Game?this page
- Will Boise State make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Georgia make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Indiana make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Notre Dame make the CFP National Championship Game?Yes won
- Will Ohio State make the CFP National Championship Game?Yes won
- Will Oregon make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Penn State make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Tennessee make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Texas make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.