College Football · resolved market
Will Texas make the CFP National Championship Game?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8854de25ec8fc1e787504073bf0b507dd9a1e5f4b872e625ff1d0aac85be16f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e74…92a4backed Yes | 33c | 1,463$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 2c | 1,446$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +743.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…57edbacked No | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4c…886cbacked Yes | 50c | 990$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4b…f338backed No | 50c | 990$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8722…2df4backed No | 49c | 990$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5280…2807backed Yes | 51c | 990$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…26e8backed Yes | 45c | 750$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 37c | 732.32$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.32 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 70c | 328.53$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.56 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 39c | 322.43$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.63 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 60c | 303.63$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.45 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 58c | 289.04$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1b…62c1backed No | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 58c | 236.92$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.51 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -70%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 17c | 217.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes | 38c | 122.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 68c | 120$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 30c | 118.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b2…90f4backed Yes | 40c | 86.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0c…4b07backed No | 61c | 86.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 77.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 29c | 70.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…5e61backed No | 60c | 69.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71c…a317backed No | 60c | 62.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf739…e27fbacked Yes | 37c | 56.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388a…44bfbacked Yes | 40c | 51.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf568…cc37backed Yes | 40c | 49.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd3…4412backed No | 63c | 49.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bd…5983backed No | 61c | 49.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…ed92backed No | 60c | 48.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8645…2f2abacked Yes | 40c | 46.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98bf…6945backed Yes | 40c | 41.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3806…3131backed Yes | 38c | 39.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28f…d82bbacked Yes | 40c | 37.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a1…4dedbacked Yes | 40c | 32.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…5d39backed Yes | 47c | 31.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…7febbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff87…96afbacked No | 62c | 31.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…958abacked Yes | 40c | 30.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…129cbacked Yes | 40c | 30.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec5…7fbebacked Yes | 41c | 29.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…31efbacked Yes | 40c | 28.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc66…26d9backed No | 62c | 28.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04aa…6ccabacked Yes | 39c | 26.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…c8bbbacked No | 61c | 18.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c2…fb62backed No | 62c | 17.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 60c | 17.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ec…6918backed No | 64c | 15.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Texas make the CFP National Championship Game?this page
- Will Arizona State make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Boise State make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Georgia make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Indiana make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Notre Dame make the CFP National Championship Game?Yes won
- Will Ohio State make the CFP National Championship Game?Yes won
- Will Oregon make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Penn State make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Tennessee make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.