College Football · resolved market
Will Penn State make the CFP National Championship Game?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48c2bfb3dc4fec3736fcc1981f483a06ab5f91311f606d1708ed33a8e7fd760a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd398…c487backed Yes | 53c | 15,047$7,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,974.77 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 34c | 11,764$4,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,047.64 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef3…c555backed No | 66c | 10,144$6,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,451.24 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed No | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 36c | 1,334$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.1 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…57edbacked No | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…26e8backed No | 64c | 733.62$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 63c | 667.78$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.08 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 64c | 600$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed No | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacbd…3c7abacked No | 55c | 363.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.85 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed No | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 34c | 243.03$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 234.47$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.41 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e73…30b3backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55f4…959cbacked No | 58c | 195.34$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.04 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480f…0905backed Yes | 42c | 195.34$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1b…62c1backed Yes | 44c | 180.52$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 41c | 121.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…a0babacked Yes | 45c | 114$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 53c | 99.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 43c | 72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbafe…893abacked No | 52c | 58.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No | 67c | 58.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5391…71c3backed Yes | 46c | 53.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25f…3674backed Yes | 54c | 51.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa6…1ddbbacked Yes | 54c | 50.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7208…14e8backed Yes | 46c | 48.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2e…b287backed Yes | 47c | 47.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…0bb3backed No | 54c | 44.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a6…c609backed No | 52c | 40.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04cd…851abacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…ed09backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…115dbacked No | 56c | 37.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb594…2dfcbacked No | 55c | 35.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8466…590fbacked No | 55c | 34.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f53…3b35backed Yes | 47c | 34.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79e…2fe7backed No | 55c | 34.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8700…7a73backed Yes | 47c | 33.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…5eebbacked No | 56c | 31.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf832…4baabacked Yes | 47c | 30.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7228…6edbbacked Yes | 45c | 30.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…f9f2backed No | 55c | 30.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…cc77backed Yes | 47c | 29.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a60…9e08backed Yes | 54c | 29.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51d…885abacked No | 54c | 28.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0f…d193backed Yes | 45c | 27.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f5…ff95backed No | 55c | 27.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc63…07abbacked No | 56c | 26.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…d373backed Yes | 47c | 25.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2475…c1d6backed No | 55c | 25.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1859…bdbfbacked Yes | 47c | 25.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e3…aeedbacked No | 56c | 24.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e9…0dfabacked Yes | 45c | 24.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e8…4d3dbacked No | 56c | 23.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf506…9b8dbacked No | 56c | 23.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd973…f1c8backed No | 56c | 23.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdd…e024backed No | 56c | 23.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e89…0a8fbacked No | 56c | 22.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a0…2488backed No | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d6…b848backed No | 56c | 22.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x455a…ab3cbacked No | 56c | 22.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc325…98d6backed No | 56c | 21.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3af…21d8backed No | 56c | 21.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a5…d191backed No | 55c | 21.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf04…10d4backed No | 56c | 20.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192f…b411backed No | 56c | 20.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…5656backed No | 56c | 20.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…eb6ebacked No | 56c | 19.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…51f2backed No | 54c | 19.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3130…7e47backed No | 56c | 18.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3c…d75ebacked No | 56c | 18.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf56…135bbacked No | 56c | 18.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…c164backed No | 56c | 18.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8024…9712backed No | 56c | 17.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Penn State make the CFP National Championship Game?this page
- Will Arizona State make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Boise State make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Georgia make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Indiana make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Notre Dame make the CFP National Championship Game?Yes won
- Will Ohio State make the CFP National Championship Game?Yes won
- Will Oregon make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Tennessee make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
- Will Texas make the CFP National Championship Game?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.