Us Politics · resolved market
25% aluminum tariff in effect before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc520c94194c57a5ba6e7d292ed9fa742125cef05b57cfb377f12ef61541b6e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 3c | 8,205$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.07 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 9c | 1,698$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.31 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 6c | 1,062$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed No | 37c | 766.77$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.07 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 76c | 761$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.07 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5f…213ebacked No | 2c | 699.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…b2ffbacked No | 4c | 600$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…654cbacked No | 6c | 434.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 6c | 372$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bf…b84fbacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 289$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked No | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 5c | 256.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…fb84backed No | 6c | 252.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 4c | 250.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed No | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 11c | 183.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 7c | 158.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 16c | 142.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked No | 18c | 121.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 76c | 118.42$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdc…0771backed No | 13c | 111.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed No | 35c | 74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 32c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 76c | 53.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.