Middle East · resolved market
Will Sinwar leave Gaza by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e59fbdc2beefc1981e1ac18b0f198f00969495ddb71a5714ddc9dcf8866087f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 10c | 8,996$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.64 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 3c | 6,161$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.71 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…dcb8backed Yes | 9c | 5,912$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked Yes | 10c | 5,673$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.68 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 10c | 4,895$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.71 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1453…a680backed Yes | 4c | 4,537$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.4 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…5208backed Yes | 13c | 4,043$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac0…041fbacked Yes | 4c | 4,000$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edf…f8d0backed Yes | 2c | 3,418$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 0c | 2,889$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed Yes | 6c | 2,844$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.52 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831e…8db9backed Yes | 25c | 2,577$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 4c | 2,444$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.66 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 10c | 2,015$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.31 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Yes | 1c | 2,015$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…f223backed Yes | 3c | 1,600$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed No | 79c | 1,500$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…64b8backed Yes | 6c | 1,442$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,338$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…6498backed Yes | 6c | 1,307$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0b…3a52backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 34c | 990.63$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.47 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 5c | 989.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 6c | 900$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 7c | 640.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 4c | 623.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 14c | 594.74$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.28 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 16c | 522.65$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8b…6f7fbacked Yes | 13c | 387.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb9…7459backed Yes | 3c | 375$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.25per pick | 20cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…492abacked Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa968…4493backed Yes | 4c | 265.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32e…8834backed Yes | 5c | 232$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…0101backed Yes | 10c | 206.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked No | 10c | 202.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.56per pick | 10cpaid | +974.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb82…1537backed Yes | 40c | 199$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 14c | 193.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…64e7backed Yes | 11c | 182.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 8c | 174.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 78c | 148.88$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…15f1backed Yes | 14c | 146.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…f162backed Yes | 13c | 140.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc47f…f18cbacked Yes | 15c | 81.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a73…c046backed Yes | 49c | 54.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 30cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.