World Politics · resolved market
Will Andrew Tate go to the UK before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ed88864f75620c2f6d741eef9aeb8300f45fc7e640870113925e53e97bd73c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 6c | 6,742$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 8c | 1,225$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.21 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 10c | 979.13$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.27 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d7…c5afbacked Yes | 16c | 805$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 2c | 795.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…6768backed Yes | 3c | 645.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 18c | 566$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.88 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a3…44d3backed Yes | 20c | 510.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc6…c602backed Yes | 17c | 499.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef86…5afcbacked Yes | 45c | 413.79$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c60…67c1backed No | 50c | 329.64$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 18c | 273.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 5c | 239$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 230$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 187.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 12c | 139.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbda…2687backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc297…c990backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…4991backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c4…1f68backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…cbbcbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c8…e1ebbacked No | 78c | 12.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.