World Politics · resolved market
Someone else next Prime Minister of France?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76d8d64d7ef5ee8a3a3d167d8d10ee99a71bbe73ab92d3861314b254f99d8d80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 0c | 27,241$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.45 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 43c | 4,150$1,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,382.87 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 27c | 2,343$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,712.9 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…b781backed Yes | 35c | 2,161$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x688e…a8f1backed No | 46c | 2,059$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…c427backed Yes | 37c | 1,793$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x651d…6f4dbacked Yes | 28c | 1,725$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9c…8c18backed Yes | 17c | 1,421$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…b703backed Yes | 14c | 1,246$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 5c | 1,062$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.9 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 23c | 1,042$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.17 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…8d48backed Yes | 16c | 533.09$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…e77abacked Yes | 23c | 502.91$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.59per pick | 16cpaid | +267.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 37c | 496.82$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.62 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…4891backed Yes | 16c | 496.52$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.82 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a20…6d19backed Yes | 56c | 354.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fac…574ebacked Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…b113backed Yes | 65c | 280.45$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa939…adf2backed Yes | 66c | 278.21$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -62%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x548b…0a18backed Yes | 4c | 266.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +1,232.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 39c | 244.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 19c | 227$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x069d…0089backed Yes | 20c | 216.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0afe…a614backed Yes | 76c | 205.32$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6b…f255backed No | 25c | 199.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…b19dbacked Yes | 15c | 194.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked Yes | 20c | 170$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…9d0fbacked No | 28c | 160$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c6…76b2backed Yes | 49c | 141.41$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735c…5630backed Yes | 75c | 132.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 13c | 121.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb77c…ce3cbacked Yes | 20c | 101.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +242.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…6709backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…82e5backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +719.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238a…5f83backed Yes | 46c | 97.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…0053backed No | 54c | 96.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fd…34ccbacked Yes | 21c | 89.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…7662backed Yes | 13c | 84.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe661…ade4backed Yes | 65c | 76.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2732…cd8abacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…9356backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce74…2facbacked Yes | 21c | 57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +139.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8354…a44bbacked Yes | 45c | 55.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x819a…fac3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed No | 70c | 47.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3736…243fbacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bb…3f8bbacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf1…7f3cbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f5…22dabacked Yes | 68c | 29.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83f5…5b90backed Yes | 40c | 25.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +255.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed17…5b41backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125c…38f7backed Yes | 59c | 18.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f27…1c6dbacked Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…5510backed Yes | 69c | 14.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Someone else next Prime Minister of France?this page
- Eric Ciotti next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Francois Ruffin next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Another Ensemble member next Prime Minister of France? No won
- Another National Rally member the next Prime Minister of France? No won
- Another New Popular Front member next Prime Minister of France? No won
- Gabriel Attal next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Jordan Bardella next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Manuel Bompard next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Valérie Rabault next Prime Minister of France?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.