World Politics · resolved market
Another Ensemble member next Prime Minister of France?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x702abe9529336493889acfd656d5169f0aebd96f97d3afc4a8c7a3a5cf71ae7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 7c | 4,271$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.21 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 15c | 3,049$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.52 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 14c | 2,221$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.08 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…205abacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8621…b0c5backed Yes | 3c | 1,880$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 3c | 1,805$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…b781backed Yes | 20c | 1,505$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6056…7227backed Yes | 12c | 1,200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 14c | 1,153$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.93 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 12c | 1,080$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.78 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…b703backed Yes | 38c | 883.28$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2732…cd8abacked Yes | 17c | 767.37$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…8d48backed Yes | 15c | 760$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…4891backed Yes | 14c | 728.66$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 6c | 722.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4a…4b51backed Yes | 15c | 508.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437a…925cbacked Yes | 6c | 464.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 12c | 419.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6b…f255backed Yes | 5c | 333.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…37eabacked Yes | 5c | 302.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +180.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9c…8c18backed Yes | 26c | 300$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…b19dbacked Yes | 11c | 283.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735c…5630backed No | 74c | 263.59$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 27c | 251.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 22c | 224.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4a…0306backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +391.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked Yes | 26c | 195.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…8c54backed Yes | 26c | 179.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…9356backed Yes | 14c | 125.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8181…ea9ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +241.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fd…34ccbacked Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b23…cc14backed Yes | 32c | 56.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 28c | 53.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce74…2facbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +139.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another Ensemble member next Prime Minister of France? this page
- Eric Ciotti next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Francois Ruffin next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Another National Rally member the next Prime Minister of France? No won
- Another New Popular Front member next Prime Minister of France? No won
- Gabriel Attal next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Jordan Bardella next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Manuel Bompard next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Someone else next Prime Minister of France?Yes won
- Valérie Rabault next Prime Minister of France?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.